Even events that the country does not cause can have consequences for Israel’s diplomatic leeway in the war against Hamas. This became apparent last week after the controversial explosion near a hospital in Gaza City. Israel probably turned out not to be responsible, but the diplomatic damage had already been done. Several Arab countries, under pressure from their angry populations, issued strong condemnations of Israel, and US President Joe Biden was promptly no longer welcome for consultations with regional leaders.
Friday was a day of great nerves. The travel advice to Lebanon went red, due to the increasing clashes between Israel and Hezbollah. On Thursday evening, US President Biden addressed his nation from the Oval Office, including on the need to provide heavy military support to Israel. An Israeli ground offensive in the Gaza Strip appears imminent.
In the meantime, Israel must maintain public sympathy.
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Since the atrocities with which Hamas provoked this latest conflict two weeks ago, Israel has been largely supported in the West. Still coming disgusting details come out about the massacre of Israeli civilians by Hamas. Western societies that have themselves suffered acts of terror in recent decades identify primarily with the country that falls victim to them. Israel can also count almost unconditionally on the support of its ally America and Germany, which, out of a sense of historical duty, stands firmly behind the Jewish state.
But Western credit for Israel is not entirely without clauses. The Israeli bombing of the Gaza Strip is so intense that there is also strong criticism, not least in Arab communities that generally identify with the Palestinians. With all of Biden’s heart-warming words, it was clear that he also expects Israel to adhere to the rule of law standards in its counter-reaction, however understandable it may be. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in turn, referred to the bond between Israel and Germany as “democratic countries that act fairly even in extreme situations.”
Apart from their support for Israel, Biden and Scholz also hoped to alleviate some of the humanitarian needs in Gaza during their visit. That only works to a limited extent. Even if an agreement had been reached on the entry of aid, not a single truck had passed through the Rafah border crossing on Friday. Doctors Without Borders warned on Thursday for “the collapse of patient care” in Gaza if fuel is not supplied very quickly for the generators that run hospitals.
The disturbing images from Gaza continue to appear on phone screens in the West and beyond. If the West pays too little attention to the suffering of the Palestinians, warn officials and diplomats in the Financial Times, this could have broader consequences. For example, over the past year and a half, Western countries have tried to convince countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America of the necessity of the fight against Russia. The one-sided focus on Israeli suffering may result in the West losing its goodwill with these countries, which traditionally support the Palestinian cause. “They will never listen to us again,” said a diplomat from a G7 country. Israel could also alienate itself from countries such as India, Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa.
Boots in the Gaza Strip
There will be intensive discussions at a summit in the Egyptian capital Cairo on Saturday, with the main aim of preventing this local war from developing into a broader conflict in the region. In southern Lebanon, the situation is tense, with Hezbollah feeling compelled to seriously enter the fray as soon as Israeli soldiers plant their boots in the Gaza Strip.
Yet, according to Israeli Minister Yoav Gallant (Defense, Likud), such a ground war is imminent. This is expected to be an exhausting battle, fought door to door, and partly in Hamas’ extensive tunnel network under Gaza City, nicknamed ‘The Metro’. The Israeli attack will be “difficult, long and intense,” in the words of Major General Yaron Finkelman.
Israel will realize that civilian deaths in such a battle in a highly urbanized environment cannot be avoided. And especially with large numbers of civilian deaths, the country can quickly lose the credit it has built up. An NGO such as Human Rights Watch is already criticizing the lack of Western condemnations of the almost incessant Israeli attacks. That pressure will only increase.
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Israel will also have to continue to take into account the sensitivities in Arab countries. This also applies to countries with which it has established diplomatic ties, such as the United Arab Emirates, or with which it was about to do so, such as Saudi Arabia. Images of dead Palestinians weigh heavily on the public mind in these countries. Despite the enormous task, Israel will also have to adhere to international agreements on warfare in a ground war: eliminate as many Hamas militants as possible with as few civilian deaths as possible.
According to war strategist Mick Ryan, Israel will have looked closely at the way Ukraine and Russia have interacted globally since the Russian invasion in February 2022. trying to influence governments and public opinion. The next phase of the war will be a “multi-dimensional war effort,” Ryan said: not just a battle on the ground, but also an information battle with global sympathy at stake.
Israel is of course not the only party that wants to maintain its reputation; Hamas wants that just as well. In recent weeks it has already been seen that Hamas tried to boost its popularity with slick videos about ‘resistance against the Israeli occupier’. Hamas wants nothing more than to be seen as the leader of that resistance, and if it succeeds, it will legitimize its rule in Gaza. What Israel can offer in return, says Ryan, is transparency and accountability. “At the same time, the country will have to combat the increase in disinformation operations and cyber attacks that accompanied Hamas’ attack on southern Israel.”
Power vacuum
In the meantime, the question remains what Israel ultimately hopes to achieve with its deployment of soldiers in the Gaza Strip. Eradicating Hamas seems to be the main goal. But assuming you succeed, what happens next? Who will govern the Gaza Strip then? If Israel eliminates Hamas and then withdraws, it would create a power vacuum that extremist groups would be eager to step into. Should Israel then rule Gaza itself? It will not do that, Minister Gallant announced on Friday: after the war, Israel will no longer bear “responsibility for life in the Gaza Strip.” The Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas then? It is extremely unpopular in Gaza. Biden warned Israel about the lack of a plan with a reference to past American mistakes: the US wanted revenge after 9/11, but “revenge is not a strategy.”
War strategist Ryan also identifies a number of goals that do seem achievable. Thus, a decisive victory over Hamas would restore the deterrent effect of Israeli military supremacy and revive Israelis’ confidence in their own security forces. Then it is important that Israel abandons the strategy of recent years, also known as ‘mowing the lawn’: the assumption that Israel can maintain the status quo in Gaza by hitting Hamas just hard enough to deter Israel. attack, but not so hard that Gaza completely collapses or a regional war breaks out. That strategy, according to analyst Raphael Cohen, “reflected a high degree of pride”.
The rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia has come to a standstill due to all recent developments. However, the improved ties between these two countries could also bring a solution to the situation in Gaza closer, for example by giving Riyadh a role in building a viable state after Hamas. Then Israel must abandon another dogma of recent years: that rapprochement in the Middle East can also be achieved without addressing the Palestinian issue. The Saudis have always emphasized that diplomatic ties with Israel must be accompanied by the prospect of a better future for the Palestinians.
The main question is whether this is possible under the rule of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – the architect of the strategies that appear to be crumbling these weeks. In times of war, the Israelis will still stand by their leader. But like his country’s, Netanyahu’s credit is not endless.