Frans Timmermans is starting to emerge from the shelter. The TV appearances and newspaper interviews are gradually increasing. It is a conscious strategy, I understood from an article in AD/Het Parool. “His team guards against overkill,” the reporters wrote.
It can be a successful strategy, we know from Sifan Hassan, who has become one of the best athletes in the world with it. Start inconspicuously in the back line, then steadily advance to the front ranks, after which the leading position is taken over and maintained in the last devastating laps.
We are already seeing some of the electoral translation in the polls. In that of Maurice de Hond, who was closest to the outcome in the last two elections, GroenLinks-PvdA is in third place with 24 seats behind VVD (26) and NSC (28).
Sifrans Timmermans – it is an interesting image, if we ignore his embon point for a moment. If it becomes reality, it could mean a turnaround in Dutch politics, because Timmermans has NRC said that he wants a government without VVD. Well, he keeps his wits about him (“You are not allowed to exclude anyone… Except parties that exclude other people”), but he says in so many words about a coalition with the VVD: “That seems almost impossible to me.”
In short, the PvdA has (finally) paid its dues and will not be tempted again into a self-destructive coalition with the VVD.
Anyone who excludes the VVD as a partner will soon be unable to continue without Pieter Omtzigt’s NSC. Timmermans therefore makes himself dependent on Omtzigt and the question is whether Omtzigt benefits from this. Is there sufficient political chemistry between the two gentlemen? Omtzigt has not yet commented on this, but I sense a clear respect from Timmermans. In the NRCinterview, he called Omtzigt’s “hero status” “deserved”. At the same time, he expressed some criticism: “He says a lot of things, we still have to see it, I have not yet seen an election manifesto.”
One development is becoming increasingly clear: Omtzigt and Timmermans will play a central role in these elections. In terms of political experience and dossier knowledge, they stand head and shoulders above the field, and they will soon be difficult to beat in the TV debates.
As long as Timmermans can maintain unity between GroenLinks and PvdA, he is strong. Omtzigt has a tougher task. He must create a completely new party from the ground up and provide more clarity about his own position. Does he want to become prime minister himself or not? And if not, who does he have up his sleeve? This Great Unknown already has one handicap: he/she is in the shadow of the leader. But the voter will want to know: who is this person who should become the NSC face of the new government? In fact, Omtzigt cannot avoid becoming that government leader himself if he wins.
Who would Omtzigt prefer to rule with? Unlike Timmermans, he has not yet made any statements about this. He will be asked more and more forcefully. Does he want to switch to the left with GroenLinks-PvdA or to the right with BBB and VVD?
I stick to the latter combination, after which Timmermans has to return to the shelter.