The European Central Bank (ECB) has approved a new increase in the interest ratesthat is, of price of money. From July of last year to the present, this variable has climbed from 0% to 4.5%. And that decision, which pursues stop the rise in the general price levelInflation has numerous implications for the economy, both for families and households and for companies. In technical terms we usually talk about cooling the economy. The problem is that an excessive increase in the price of money can end up causing a paralysis of economic activity.
One of the first consequences of the rise in interest rates is that you pay more to go into debt, that is, credit is more expensive for those who access it. And also certain loans that one already has become more expensive and reduce the purchasing capacity of families. A good example of this is the one year Euriborthe interest at which banks lend to each other and the main reference for those who have a variable interest mortgage.
This indicator, which until April of last year was in negative territory, is currently at 4.073%. And that has not only increased the loans that are in their first third of duration, the part in which interest weighs the most, but has also made new ones more expensive.
The configuration of the market for new mortgages has also changed, as fixed-rate mortgages, which until a year ago accounted for three out of every four new loans for home purchases, are losing ground, as they have become more expensive. The flow has moved toward the variable interest, that are becoming cheaper and, even more so, towards mixed mortgagesin which an initial period of five or 10 years is at a fixed rate and the rest is variable.
In principle, an increase in the price of money has two sides: one is that it makes credit more expensive and the other is that savings benefit more. Although the large banks in Spain, which lived through a period of negative interest and had to manage to make money through service fees, have dragged their feet and the differential between what they charge for lending and what they remunerate for safekeeping the money has reached historical highs. Very little by little, yes, they are increasing the interest on deposits.
In July, the average interest applied to new deposits was 2.33%, although 90.5% of individuals’ money deposited in banks is in current accounts remunerated at 0.12%. Small and medium-sized entities are the ones that have raised remuneration the most for now and many savers have turned to Treasury bills, short-term public debt (up to one year).
Financing through loans becomes more expensive
For companies that use bonds and other types of debt to finance themselves, rising interest rates are not very good news. In fact They have to raise the remuneration they offer for attracting lenders, in this case people, companies or funds. As a consequence, many companies, which in the stages of low or minimum interest rates resorted to this modality, will abandon it.
The euro, a more attractive currency
A rise in interest rates can cause an appreciation of the euro against other currencies, such as the dollar. In any case, it depends on whether interest rates have been raised by a smaller amount in the other currencies. And foreign investors find more attractive to invest in euro zone countries, since they obtain a greater return on their investment. The appreciation of the euro can in turn contribute to reducing inflation, because the imported products are cheaper. But at the same time hurts exportsone of the drivers of current economic growth, because Spanish products become more expensive for foreign buyers.
Activity slows down
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As a result of the increase in credit prices, ends up reducing global economic activity. The reduction in consumption, investment and exports causes a fall in aggregate demand. The data on the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of this year, with a general increase of 0.6% compared to the last quarter of 2022, reveals a quarter-on-quarter drop of 1.4% in household consumption, after -0.6% in the October-December period. This trend was offset by the 1.8% increase in investment, compared to the 3.7% decrease in the fourth quarter of last year; and 5.7% in exports, after the 1% decrease in October-December.
And as a consequence the economy cools down. In order not to lose business, companies choose to lower prices, but less is produced and, therefore, if the decline worsens, jobs end up being cut.