The wave of extreme heat that this July has invaded much of the northern hemisphere of the planetfrom the United States to Europe, would have been “almost impossible” without climate change. According to a study by the ‘World Weather Attribution’ platform, the alteration of the climate caused by our species has multiplied by 50 the possibilities that, for example, China pulverized its temperature record and registered maximums of up to 52.2 degrees in the Xinjiang region. “The warming caused by greenhouse gases is causing extreme heat waves are no longer unusual occurrences“concludes the analysis published this Tuesday.
As explained by the experts who have carried out this study, led by Imperial College London, this type of extreme episodes would be something extremely rare in a world without climate change. But due to the advance of this global phenomenon, which has accelerated in recent years, heat waves have become “more and more intense, lasting and frequent” across much of the planet. A century and a half ago, for example, such temperature extremes only occurred a couple of times every 100 to 200 years. Now, records show, practically every decade there are one (or more) episodes of extreme heat.
Heat waves have become increasingly intense, long lasting and frequent in much of the planet
The latest heat wave that has hit the north of the globe perfectly illustrates how climate change is extreme this type of phenomena. “If humanity had not heated the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels,” the experts explain, the average temperature recorded last week would have been 2.5ºC lower in Europe, two degrees below in North America and 1 degree below in China. Likewise, it would also have been practically impossible to record such high figures like the 45ºC maximum observed last Tuesday in various areas of Catalonia, especially in the Empordà.
heat deaths
The rise in temperatures that has occurred in the middle of this month of July has not only triggered the thermometers above 40ºC in much of the northern hemisphere. The extreme heat has also caused several heat stroke deaths in countries like Spain, Italy, Greece, Algeria and China. In Mexico, moreover, there were at least a hundred deaths of migrants on the border with the United States. “Heat is one of the deadliest natural disasters“, remember Julie Arrighidirector of the ‘Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre’, after the publication of this latest analysis.
“Heat is one of the deadliest natural disasters”
But is the increase in heat waves irrefutable proof that we are exposed to climate breakdown? Noanswers Friederike Otto, a researcher at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change. “We still have time to ensure a secure and prosperous future, but to do so we urgently need to stop burning fossil fuels. If we don’t, thousands of people will continue to die every year due to extreme heat,” says this expert. Last summer, without going any further, it is estimated that summer heat waves caused at least 60,000 premature deaths in Europe, of which about 11,000 occurred in Spain.
Future of extreme temperatures
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According to the forecasts, “if global emissions do not stop drastically before the end of this decade” the heat waves will become more extreme and frequent. Even with respect to current thresholds. Experts estimate that if global temperatures increase by two degrees on average, something that according to experts could occur in the middle of this century, the typical heat wave that used to occur once every 100 years and now repeats itself every 30, in the future could occur every two or five years at the most.
In this scenario, it is not only expected that the heat waves be every time more frequent but, in addition, they could also throw temperatures much more extreme. “The hottest summer so far will seem ‘cool’ at the end of the century,” explained the meteorologist Rubén del Campo, famous spokesman for the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), in an interview with EL PERIÓDICO. “In cities like Seville, Córdoba or points in the Ebro valley, where maximum temperatures of between 42 and 44ºC are now registered values of 50ºC could be reached. In Madrid, we will go from highs of 40ºC to peaks between 44 and 45ºC“, commented the expert talking about what, “in the more or less near future”, could happen in Spain.