EL PERIÓDICO offers this Sunday, July 23, the latest update of the Predilect prediction market to know the evolution of the vote, seat and turnout estimates in the general elections. The result of a research project at the University of Zurich, Predilect is the only mechanism that makes it possible to follow the latest electoral expectations beyond the polls and until the same electoral journeygiven the legal prohibition of publishing opinion polls during the five days prior to the elections and until the polling stations close.
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In this latest update, which collects data up to yesterday’s day of reflection, the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo has added three seats in the last 24 hours to the detriment of the PSOE and Sumar, so that the right-wing block reaches the absolute majority that had been around since the beginning of the series of predictions. The popular ones arrive at the elections with a comfortable advantage in the lead and would win comfortably, while Pedro Sanchez It would regress significantly and it would not be able to articulate a majority with the same partners on which it has relied during this legislature. Vox, the party of Santiago Abascalarrives at the elections with a minimal advantage over the coalition of Yolanda Diaz in its struggle for the status of third political force.
The PP would win the elections with the 36% of the votes and leads the PSOE by 7.2 points, which would remain in the 28.81% of the votes. Regarding the previous prediction, the popular ones have added almost one point and the socialists have dropped half a point, so the distance between the two has grown one and a half points in the last 24 hours. A tenth separates Vox, which would achieve the 13.18% of the ballots, one tenth less than yesterday, and Sumar, who would get the 13.08%also one tenth less than the day before.
The electoral race ends with two more hard-fought battles: CKD and togetherseparated by two tenths in favor of the Republicans, and GNP and EH Bilduwhose distance is less than one tenth in favor of the peneuvistas.
The following graph shows the evolution of the evolution of the percentage of vote of each political force since the beginning of the series of predictions.
Converting these percentages into seats in Congress, Feijóo would obtain 140 seats (today he is 89) and Sánchez would stay with 104 deputies (Now it has 120), which means that the PP has risen three seats and the PSOE has lost two during the day of reflection. Abascal would achieve 37 seats (today he has 52), the same as in the previous prediction, and Díaz would get 34 deputies (now he is 38), one less than yesterday. ERC remains with 10 seats and Junts continues with 9 deputies. The other pulse continues as tied as yesterday: PNV and EH Bildu would collect 6 seats each. The remaining 4 parliamentarians would be distributed among other formations.
The following graph shows the evolution of the evolution of seats of each political force since the beginning of the series of predictions.
With these results, the right-wing bloc made up of PP and Vox would add 177 seats, three more than the day before, so it would exceed the absolute majority threshold (176) and Feijóo would not need the support or abstention of a third partner to ensure the investiture. The current government coalition, PSOE and Sumar, would achieve 138 seatsthree less than yesterday, which would prevent Sánchez from reissuing the majority that supported him in his first inauguration to try to neutralize the sum of Feijóo and Abascal.
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The stake It is the great unknown of these atypical elections in the middle of summer vacations and this data may be key to the expectations of each block. Predilect estimates that today they will vote on 70.56% of the census, one tenth more than yesterday and 4.3 points more in the last elections, when the worst mobilization record was obtained in general elections (66.23%). The participation record was set in 1982, with 79.97% in the first elections won by Felipe González.
After the turnaround on the political map that the municipal and regional elections meant, Sánchez and Feijóo are waging the final battle this Sunday for the hegemony of the electoral board. The PP sails with the wind in favor of the surveys and the effect of his recent success at the polls, while the PSOE clings to the social and economic management of the Government and the possible wear and tear that the popular may suffer due to their pacts with Vox, in addition to the impact, still uncertain, that the integration of all the space to its left may have in the new Sumar brand. The sum of the left and right blocks It will undoubtedly be the determining factor on election night.