Extreme weather does not lead to a debate about climate change everywhere

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The northern hemisphere is suffering from unprecedented extreme weather: sea water at bath temperature, new heat records for days on end, but also devastating wildfires due to drought, plus flooding due to intense rains. What does it lead to, besides discomfort and suffering for the vulnerable among humans and animals? Is it linked to climate change? And if so, does that lead to calls for radical measures? A tour.

South Europe

According to ISGlobal, an institute for global health, last summer in Spain, eleven thousand people died from the effects of the heat. In Europe there were only more in Italy. This summer, especially in Spain and Italy, with temperatures above 40 degrees, there will again be many heat deaths.

The heat wave hits Spain in the week before Sunday’s parliamentary elections. In a sense, that ballot box is also a referendum on the climate: do voters support the climate plans of the left-wing government, aimed at limiting CO2emissions, or are they moving too fast? According to the polls, there is a good chance that the left-wing government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will have to make way for a coalition of the conservative Partido Popular and the radical right-wing Vox.

Especially the climate plans of the latter party, or the lack thereof, are viewed with skepticism. The party does not deny that the climate is changing, but doubts the human influence on global warming and argues that there are also positive sides to it. Vox leader Santiago Abascal speaks of the ‘totalitarian’ tendency to subject climate policy to the ‘dictation’ of scientists. “Our concern is the emergence of a climate religion that you can’t disagree with.” Moreover, climate goals harm the countryside, argues Vox. Rules about CO2emissions and water savings are at the expense of factories and the livestock industry.

But climate is not a theme in the Spanish election debates, says Jeroen van den Bergh, professor of environmental economics at the Autonomous University of Barcelona. “Party leaders gain little from bringing it up. And Spanish journalists don’t mention it either.” The left fears that emphasis will be placed on limiting CO2emissions deters voters, the right prefers to keep silent about the subject because otherwise it would be noticeable that little ambition is shown in this area.

Van den Bergh also notices how “messy” politicians talk about the climate. They use different terms interchangeably. But they also do not presuppose a high level of knowledge among voters, who are not well informed about it by the media.” The urgency of global warming is not exactly felt in Spain, notes Van den Bergh. “I don’t really hear my neighbours, friends and colleagues about it either. One seems to be a bit tired of the theme. While: if you don’t talk about climate change with these extreme temperatures, when will you?”

In Italy, the extreme temperatures do not lead to action either. From one research by climate think tank Ecco showed that the majority of Italians are fully aware of the consequences of climate change and ready to take collective action, but there is a lot of distrust towards politicians, institutions and the media.

Ecco policy adviser Chiara Di Mambro points to the climate coverage of right-wing newspapers such as Il Giornale, Libero and La Verita, who “completely deny” the problem of global warming. According to Di Mambro, those media only have an eye for the question of what citizens and the economy will lose if measures are taken to combat global warming. “The climate is treated a little better on TV. With these temperatures, they cannot completely ignore the subject.”

According to Di Mambro, who has been working on climate change since 2005, the Italians are not very well informed about the facts. “It is difficult to explain that the floods from earlier this year and the heat are now expressions of the same phenomenon. When I tell people around me what the IPCC reports say, they don’t believe me. Many people say that Italy only needs to act if China does something too. Why do I have to give up my car if those Chinese keep emitting?”

Read also: Inflation has a greater influence on holiday choices than the heat in southern Europe

Nevertheless, there is room for some optimism, says Di Mambro: since 2005, awareness about climate has increased enormously, and young people in particular are well informed. But: “Unfortunately, we have few young people in this aging country,” she laughs.

North America

Canada is experiencing its worst wildfire season. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has no doubts about the cause. “We are seeing more and more of these fires because of climate change,” he wrote on Twitter. But not everyone shares that perspective. Doug Ford, the conservative premier of the province of Ontario, does not want to make the connection and speaks of “politicizing the wildfires”. And the introduction of a CO2tax is generating strong resistance, including in the oil-rich province of Alberta. Smoke from the Canadian fires is spreading over large parts of the continent.

For the U.S., smoke pollution is just one of the problems: from the Northeast, which experienced sudden, torrential downpours and flash flooding this month, to southern states like Florida, where sea temperatures reach 36 degrees near hot tub levels — killing fish, algae growth, and damaging corals.

In the metropolis of Phoenix, Arizona, extreme heat has become a chronic reality. Wednesday it was 48 degrees. Phoenix became the first city in the US two years ago to receive a municipal department that attempts to take long-term measures, such as planting trees and installing heat-reflecting road surfaces. But, said David Hondula, head of that service, against The New York Times: “Plans for heat and investments around heat are not where they should be.”

Party leaders gain little from bringing up the climate

Jeroen van den Bergh environmental economist

Hondula applauds the federal government’s willingness to fund measures — such as a modest initiative to help underprivileged communities alleviate the effects of heat waves. But not everyone in Congress wants to hear about such funding. Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, a state also suffering from scorching heat, has argued against climate initiatives in President Joe Biden’s 2024 budget, including a more than $78 million (70 million euros) post for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to “help build a climate-ready nation” and “promote climate change and environmental justice.” According to Cruz, that is “promoting political agendas.” The right-wing channel Fox News stated in agreement that Cruz exposed “woke climate initiatives”.

India

From serious concerns about drought and a lack of monsoon rain to the evacuation of tens of thousands of residents after flash floods and heavy rainfall, the extremes alternated in just a few weeks in India. It is precisely this succession of seemingly contradictory effects that has left many Indians at a loss: how does climate change manifest itself? At the same time, policymakers should try to take all these problems into account.

Firefighters in Greece try to put out a fire west of Athens.

Photo Louisa Gouliamaki/AFP

Indian policy makers recognize heat as a problem. In 2013 they drew up a first heat plan. But an inventory this year made it clear that this plan is not very effective. For example, it takes insufficient account of the most vulnerable groups in society: workers who have to do physical work during the day, the poor who live on the street, and others who cannot afford aids. This year, the nights are barely cooler than the hours during the day, which means that people cannot rest and recover enough. Indian media point out the dangers of the combination of heat and high humidity. Even in the shade it is so hot and the air so humid that sweat cannot evaporate.

China

In Beijing, June had five days above 40 degrees. The heat is good for textile sales: every Chinese who wants to keep his skin white has bought a kind of thin raincoat that protects against UV radiation. But the unusual heat hardly sparks a debate about climate change. This is probably because such a subject is typically seen as something that the ordinary citizen has no control over: the government should solve it.

It’s not so much laziness or disinterest. The government does not simply allow a free discussion on this subject. On the one hand, the Chinese government is striving for less CO2emissions, while on the other hand she wants to secure the energy supply, especially during hot summers, when there is a high demand for air conditioning. China is therefore building many new coal-fired power plants.

It is also not the intention that ordinary citizens will speak out about the climate. Climate activists should also be careful about their words. Messages about the possible apocalyptic consequences of climate change would only undermine the stability of the country.

Mmv Lisa Dupuy, Frank Kuin, Garrie van Pinxteren and Derk Walters

A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper on July 22, 2023.

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