If a film were made of the XIV legislature of the Congress of Deputies -the one that will close next Sunday- the name of EH Bildu should appear on the promotional poster. Both on its own merits, collaborating with the coalition government, and outside, being the center of criticism from PP and Vox. In view of all the polls, the Abertzale formation will maintain that leading role during election night (although more in the second row) if it manages to snatch the GNP hegemony in the Basque Countrysomething that has not happened for more than a decade.
In the early hours of next Monday, the result of the polls will resolve various disputes, that of Pedro Sanchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo, that of the two main blocks (PSOE-Sumar / PP-Vox), that of ERC and Junts in Catalonia… But one that can be decisive is that it is played in Euskadi. According to the average of published surveys, PNV and EH Bildu would tie at six seats, something that has never happened.
The abertzales could even outvote their direct rival. According to the latest survey by the Gabinet d’Estudis Socials i Opinió Pública (GESOP) for Prensa Ibérica before 23-J, Bildu obtains a 1.3% of voting intentionwhile the PNV remains in 0.7%. The barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) published this Monday offers a more adjusted scenario, with a tie at 1.1%. However, it places Bildu ahead, confirming this trend.
different strategies
In the first legislature in which the left has governed since EH Bildu was founded in 2011, the formation led by Arnaldo Otegi He has shown from day one his intention to influence national politics and has been one of the struts of the bicolor Executive, endorsing the vast majority of laws after intense ‘give and take’. The extensions of the alarm statesthe different social shieldsthe housing law wave democratic memory law they have left thanks to the favorable vote of Bildu.
Contrary to their main competitor, the abertzales have opted for accentuate your social profile in Congress, opening up to constant dialogue with the coalition government and avoiding nationalist demands in their speeches. They have reached the point of distancing themselves from ERC in some votes, despite the fact that there is a coordination agreement between both forces. Good proof of the difference in strategies was the seven-party debate held by RTVE last week in which the spokesman for EH Bildu, Oskar Matutefocused on talking about progressive policies, while his counterpart in the PNV, Aitor Estebanconstantly introduced the need to respect the powers of the Basque Country.
The block policy installed in Congress has made EH Bildu a de facto regular partner of PSOE and Unidas Podemos, unleashing criticism from PP and Vox against Sánchez for agreeing with what they describe as the “political arm” of ETA. However, neither these attacks nor the controversial inclusion of 44 convicted of terrorism on the lists for the 28-M municipal elections have hindered their electoral expectations. In the elections a little over a month ago, they broke their electoral ceiling, reaching 297,068 votes in Euskadi, and surpassing the PNV in councilors. It remains to be seen if they repeat this feat next Sunday.
Pact Policy
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The implications of this battle are not few. The PP leader is clear that he will try to seek the support of the PNV in a hypothetical investiture to avoid a pact with Vox, he expressed it in an informal conversation with journalists. On the other side, Sánchez has confirmed that he will maintain the bridges with ERC and Bildu, given that any option to revalidate the coalition government depends on supporting both formations.
The abertzale formation did not want to put a price on a hypothetical investiture of Sánchez, as the PNV did, which claimed to speak of a programmatic agreement. However, what is clear is that the abertzales they will not support the PP nor to prevent the entry of Vox into the Government. On the other hand, the PNV does have in its record having invested the popular José María Aznar in 1996 or having given their vows to the last Budgets of Mariano Rajoy in 2018, although seven days later they were key to kicking out the former leader of the PP in the motion of no confidence presented by Sánchez.