Albert Sagarra is a consultant politician and communication consultant and leads Takticom, a company specializing in data to build strategies based on facts. Sagarra collaborates with EL PERIÓDICO analyzing different aspects of national politics that attract the interest of the reader. Waiting for what will happen in the next elections on July 23, he believes that the turnout will be similar to the last elections.
Is it expected that there will be a greater or lesser participation in these elections compared to the municipal and regional ones?
The trend is similar in both cases, although it is true that there is always greater participation in general elections. But the pattern will be very similar to 28-M. In those places where the participation went up, it will go up, and in the localities where the participation went down, it will now go down.
According to the latest data from the CIS, Sumar would become the third political force on 23-J. Is it possible that the CIS predictions are true and Sumar will surpass Vox?
The CIS is an institution that has lost a lot of prestige in the last five years, since Tezanos took over as director, for political scientists. The polls fail, but if they always fail in the same direction, we can say that it is suspicious. Making such a broad reflection and saying Sumar or Vox is third or fourth force is complicated because they are relatively even. On the one hand, Sumar has managed to recover from the chaos of five months ago with Podemos. And on the other hand, I see the trend of the PP calling for the useful vote to Vox voters, which causes the popular ones to grow. These two factors mean that if before there was a great difference between the party of Santiago Abascal and that of Yolanda Díaz, now it is not so much.
How can it affect the vote of the smallest provinces in these elections?
We must bear in mind that of the 350 deputies in congress, 68 are chosen from 21 provinces. This means that there are provinces that elect between one and four deputies, so the big parties tend to benefit more. But, in the second round of 2019, this trend failed in favor of Vox, the same thing that happened with Podemos in 2016. In the municipal ones, those of Feijóo have had a lot of influence in these municipalities, which means that in the general ones it could be seen reflected, giving the popular up to 38 seats. In other words, it can be seen that the harm that Vox does to the PP is minimal compared to the damage that Sumar can do to the PSOE. The ideal for the left block is that Sumar does not appear in those municipalities in which it does not ensure that it is a third force.
What is the role that Catalonia can play?
There are three important factors to consider. First, the participation of the pro-independence sector has dropped. Afterwards, the PSC continues to be very strong, even one in four ERC voters may go over to the PSC. The last factor is that the PP has achieved very good results in Catalonia, and when this happens it approaches or achieves an absolute majority in Spain.
Will Sumar or PSOE collect the pro-independence vote?
I think that on the part of this sector there is a certain fear that Vox will come to power; This means that there are more useful votes for PSOE than for Sumar. It is probable that those of Díaz obtain fewer votes than in 2016 when they were only Podemos and in this sense the ambiguous statements about the referendum of the coalition leader will affect her own party.
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Do the pacts between PP and Vox in some communities benefit Abascal or harm Feijóo?
Without a doubt they benefit Abascal and I don’t think they harm Feijóo. Right-wing voters understand that perhaps the popular ones need a crutch to be able to govern and that, right now, bears the name of Vox.