scientists of the University of Reading, UKstudied atmospheric disturbances in clear skies and found that severe turbulence increased by 55% between 1979 and 2020 on busy routes North Atlantic.“After a decade of research, it is shown that climate change will increase clear-sky turbulence in the future. Now we have evidence that suggests that the increase has already started,” said the professor. paul williamsatmospheric scientist at the Reading University, to BBC News.
The academics attributed the increase to changes in wind speeds at high altitudes, and that’s because the air is warmer from carbon emissions. “We should invest in improved turbulence detection and forecasting systems, to prevent rougher air from translating into choppier flights in the coming decades,” the researcher added to the British outlet.
The recent study was published in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters and, according to statistics, the flight paths in the United States and the North Atlantic have experienced the greatest increases in turbulence. But, on the other hand, Europe, the Middle East and the South Atlantic have also registered significant increases.
Williams asserted that the growth of turbulence was due to a greater wind shear. That is, the difference in the speed or direction of the wind between two points in the atmosphere, in the so-called jet stream. The current is a strong air system that travels rapidly from west to east, between 7 and 12 kilometers, over the planet’s surface.
From a research standpoint, while satellites cannot capture turbulence, they can see the structure and shape of the jet stream, allowing for further analysis. Radars can capture turbulence from storms, but the same in clear skies they are almost invisible and difficult to detect.
“No one should stop flying for fear of turbulence, but it is sensible to keep your seatbelt on at all times, unless you have to move around in the aircraft. This is how pilots travel”, detailed the British scientist and added. “That’s almost a guarantee that you’ll be safe, even in the worst turbulence.”
Turbulent flights are not only uncomfortable, but can also cause injuries to those on the plane. Furthermore, the industry aviation loses annually between 150 million and 500 million dollars only in the US.. due to the effects of turbulence, among other things, due to aircraft wear. The environmental cost is there, too, as pilots burn fuel to avoid further jolts.
Turbulence is the leading cause of passenger lawsuits against airlines, according to the Federal Aviation Administration US: costs US airlines up to $500 million a year in injuries, delays and damages. And according to the Atmospheric Research Centeris a phenomenon that could increase exponentially in the following years due to climate change. Around 65,000 aircraft experience moderate turbulence annually in the US, and about 5,500 experience severe turbulence.
Climate change is believed to be behind the increase in these events. “We carried out some computer simulations and found that severe turbulence could double or triple in the coming decades,” said the researcher, noting that this increase is linked to a type of turbulence called “clear air turbulence”which is not related to any visual cues like storms or clouds.
However, that does not mean that flying is less safe. “Planes are not going to start falling out of the sky, because they are built to very high specifications and can withstand the worst turbulence you can expect to encounter, even in the future,” Williams clarified, concluding: “Normally, on a transatlantic flight, you can wait 10 minutes of turbulence. I think that in a few decades this can increase to 20 minutes or half an hour”.
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