“The campaign has begun!” BBB leader Caroline van der Plas tweeted Saturday photos of green party flags that are spontaneously hung out in the country. Jesse Klaver of GroenLinks already sent Friday evening a combative letter to its members. “Let this cabinet fall be a new beginning for the Netherlands.” Other opposition leaders reacted to the fall of the cabinet with similar enthusiasm. They all say they are “ready” for new elections. But whether opposition parties can really look forward to this is doubtful. The abrupt end of the Rutte IV cabinet brings concerns and uncertainties for all parties. Which are they?
1 Political center eroded
It is certain that outgoing Prime Minister Rutte finally put an end to the (tough) cooperation of four classic middle parties on Friday evening: the social-liberal D66, the Christian-democratic CDA, the confessional Christian Union and his own liberal VVD. By announcing new elections, Rutte gives the vote back to the voter. In the current electoral context, this will almost certainly lead to a shift in political power.
After the recent parliamentary elections, the position of the coalition has eroded; in the Senate, it only accounts for 24 of the 75 seats. In the current polls, CDA and D66 in particular are in a bad position. Both sides also have a simmering leadership issue. CDA leader Wopke Hoekstra is not well received by the rank and file and does not seem the right person to pull his party out of the doldrums. D66 leader Sigrid Kaag is increasingly giving the impression that political existence is mediocre. In May, she alluded to the TV show College Tour on a departure from The Hagueafter an emotional appeal from her two daughters who fear for her safety.
According to Peilingwijzer, the VVD is losing seats, but it is competing with the BoerBurgerBeweging for the position of the largest party – and is thus again eyeing the Torentje. Yet even after seventeen years, Mark Rutte’s leadership is no longer as certain as in the past. Within the party, the names of Dilan Yesilgöz (outgoing minister of Justice and Security) and Edith Schippers (VVD party leader in the Senate) sound like potential successors. Rutte said on Friday evening that he once again felt in favor of being the party leader, but that did not sound very convincing and motivated.
2 Pulling to the right has risks
By choosing the controversial theme of asylum as a breaking point, the VVD seems to be ogling for a new course. After years of cooperation, first with the PvdA and then with D66 and the ChristenUnie, the liberals would like to rule ‘over the right’ again. This also fits in with the electoral relations of the moment. BBB won the Provincial Council elections, became the largest party in the Senate and will co-govern many provinces. The right also has a majority in the House of Representatives.
But BBB’s inexperience also brings risks. Can the new party already handle another major election campaign? Can BBB find enough suitable candidates for both the House of Representatives and the cabinet? LPF in 2002 and FVD in recent years showed that lightning growth can stand in the way of administrative stability.
In addition, BBB leader Van der Plas stated at the beginning of March that he did not want to govern with the VVD as long as Rutte “is still there”. That stands in the way of cooperation in advance.
Read also: Polling station data: almost half of BBB votes come from urban areas
3 Left-wing cooperation is far from complete
The party leaders of both PvdA and GroenLinks want to continue the amalgamation process that has started. After the joint campaign for the Provincial Council and the merged faction in the Senate, party leaders Jesse Klaver and Attje Kuiken (PvdA) want to take the next step: participate in the early parliamentary elections with one list. Only that, they believe, offers the first left-wing prime minister since Joop den Uyl (1973-1977). Some of the supporters are just not convinced yet. Although the left-wing cooperation received a lot of support in internal referenda, this project is ultimately aimed primarily at power politics in The Hague. In some provinces and municipalities, GroenLinks and PvdA have let go of each other and there will be no joint election program for next year’s European elections. Would the left-wing voter still get it?
The party leadership has long wanted to avoid a debate about the future list leader, but with early elections that battle will soon erupt. The PvdA mentions names as suitable voters: European Commissioner Frans Timmermans or Amsterdam alderman Marjolein Moorman. At GroenLinks, Jesse Klaver is still burning with ambition – he already said in 2017 that he wants to become prime minister. At joint party meetings, criticism of that scenario can be heard from both camps: shouldn’t GroenLinks also put forward a new face?
For the third largest left-wing party in the House of Representatives, the SP, elections are not necessarily attractive either. With the recent departure of Renske Leijten, the SP lost a large canon of votes. The current party leader Lilian Marijnissen has never won an election.
4 The Omtzigt factor
The question that has been hanging over the market for two years now: what does Pieter Omtzigt do? The independent member of parliament who broke with the CDA in June 2021 is still extremely popular. In that year’s election he received more than 240,000 votes. Unintentionally he played a leading role in the difficult formation that followed. He was seen by scouts and party leaders as a troublesome obstacle for the new cabinet to be formed. As a one-man faction, he still lives up to that reputation.
That Omtzigt can still attract many votes is undisputed, but he has one problem: he has no party. As an experiment, a group of Omtzigt sympathizers participated in the parliamentary elections – without success, zero seats. Omtzigt himself announced on Friday evening that he would make a decision about his future “within a few weeks”. In a short statement he said that the fall of the cabinet is “a great opportunity for a new start for the Netherlands”.
CDA and BBB in particular will await his decision with some nervousness.