The threat of war around Ukraine, the European retreat from Mali: on a working visit to the Netherlands, General Thierry Burkhard, France’s highest-ranking soldier, had more than enough to discuss with his Dutch counterpart Onno Eichelsheim in recent days. “I call him Onno, that’s easier for me,” Burkhard says with a laugh.
In concrete terms, the conversation with the Dutch Commander of the Armed Forces was about stationing additional NATO troops in Romania. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2014, NATO has deployed troops in Poland and the Baltic countries. Now that Russia has concentrated a huge force around Ukraine, there is talk within NATO about strengthening the ‘southeast flank’: Romania and Bulgaria. France has presented itself as ‘lead nation‘ for the NATO battalion in Romania, and as far as Paris is concerned, the Netherlands is the first designated ‘strategic partner’ for the mission, says Burkhard on Friday morning in The Hague, with coffee and croissants on the table.
It would be an important step in Franco-Dutch cooperation and a major expansion of Dutch participation in the NATO mission in the east. Last month, Defense Minister Ollongren also announced that two Dutch F-35s would be stationed in Bulgaria.
For several years now, the Netherlands and Germany have formed the bulk of the battle group in Lithuania. Does the Netherlands now also want to participate in Romania?
“Of course, political decision-making is still necessary from both sides, but militarily we are already trying to implement it as much as possible, so that we can act immediately as soon as the decision is made. Other partners are also possible, but why not a battalion with the Dutch? The Netherlands has the military capacity to deliver. I have good contact with Onno, we call every two weeks. We are talking about Ukraine and what can be done.”
Also read: How Dutch soldiers in Lithuania help strengthen the eastern border of the European Union
What could the Netherlands contribute?
“To give an example: in Estonia we form a partnership with the British.” battle group† We supply a company, currently with armored personnel carriers, plus logistical support: two to three hundred men. It would be logical if the Netherlands, if it took part, would provide a company, about one hundred to two hundred soldiers. But I say that with reservations, because I don’t know exactly what General Onno wants to deliver, let alone what is politically possible. But we are thinking of a number of around two hundred.”
Can the Netherlands actually do this?
„We soldiers say: you have strikers and you have the rest. The strikers go for it if they have to. We regard the Dutch as attackers. For me, the Netherlands is a partner that is willing to actually deliver.”
The Dutch defense is in bad shape, isn’t it?
“All armies have shortages, with a few exceptions. You don’t actually have complete armies in Europe anymore. That is why the will to work together is important. In addition, you need a political decision-making model that makes missions possible. In our view, the Netherlands is a large European country that meets all these requirements.”
Do you think a war in Ukraine can be averted?
“It is always possible to prevent a war and that is exactly what we are trying to do. At the same time, everything points to preparations for an attack. The signals are very bad.”
The Americans not only say that the Russians are going to attack, but they even give a very detailed scenario of it. Does that scare the Russians off? Or is it just oil on the fire?
“If I ask our intelligence services for an analysis of a possible Russian attack, there is a good chance that they will come back with a scenario such as the one now outlined by the Americans. I firmly believe that there is a Russian plan to attack Ukraine. That’s what soldiers are made for: making plans. That does not mean that those plans will be implemented.”
In Ukraine itself they say: the tone is too alarming.
“From their perspective, that’s understandable. They see the investments dry up and the foreign diplomats leave. Ukraine is clearly the first to suffer from the mounting tensions.”
So it’s not wise what the Americans are doing?
“The US statements are also a response to the war fog that Russia is trying to create. With that fog, with that ambiguity, the Russians try to undermine the decision-making of the opponent. They did the same with the annexation of Crimea: we knew for sure that it was the Russians, and yet they still managed to sow doubts about it in Western public opinion. With dozens of European countries, keeping unity is more difficult – and the Russians know that. The information war is more important than ever.
Even now, the Russians will never say clearly: we are attacking Ukraine. They’ll say, OK, some grenades have landed in the border area, but are you sure it wasn’t the separatists? Or the Ukrainians themselves? The Americans are in fact issuing a warning: beware, in the coming days we could fall prey to manipulations, which will make decision-making more difficult.”
It can be heard here and there that Ukraine should be given a neutral status for the time being. Talking about NATO membership would make things worse. How do you see that?
“I think we have already given Ukraine a specific status. In 1994, after the fall of the Soviet Union, it was agreed that Ukraine would surrender its nuclear weapons in order to limit the number of nuclear powers. In return, everyone would guarantee the borders of the country. We know how that ended.
“In the West we say: everyone can choose what they want – and it is true. At the same time, it is important from a strategic point of view to remain credible. If you’ve opened the door too wide and you can’t live up to it, it will be used against you. So what we say to Ukraine should always be carefully considered.”
France wants to strengthen the military capacity of the European Union. Doesn’t the current crisis make it especially clear that we need to focus on NATO?
“We hope that the Americans will always be there for our collective security. But if one day the Americans don’t want to or can’t do that anymore, we can’t say: well, it’s a shame, we can’t do anything anymore. That is not acceptable. Strategic autonomy for Europe is just rock solid realism.”
This week it was announced that France and European countries are withdrawing from Mali. What went wrong there?
“France committed itself to the fight against terrorism in West Africa in 2013, and that fight is not over. Since then, however, Mali has undergone a political evolution, with a government that emerged from a coup d’état, lacks legitimacy and fails to deliver on its own promises to restore democracy. They have also teamed up with Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group, who we know can really plunder the financial resources of African states. Wagner is not only expensive, the mercenaries will not contribute significantly to making Mali more resilient against terrorists. That would also run counter to Wagner’s own economic interests, as they live off this instability.”
There was no way to stay, right?
“Support the Malian army with Wagner in the back? That cannot be done.”
The Malian army will soon be on its own: how did it react to your departure?
“Up to now we had a very good relationship with the army, although you also have all kinds of currents there. Russian propaganda is also doing its job there. I am in contact with the Malian Commander of the Armed Forces, have written him a letter now, will call him later. But he is like me: he is commanded by the political power.”
Is there a threat of instability in the region now?
“We are certainly entering a period of uncertainty, but it is also a period in which we can regain our freedom of action. Europe must learn to take risks in an increasingly volatile international context. Moving the entire operation from Mali to Niger at once is not realistic. Not politically either. Mandates will have to be renewed. That is normal. What I do see is the realization that what happens there is important for Europe. We are bound to Africa by destiny. If things go wrong there, it will not have an impact on the US or China, but it will have an impact on Europe.”
A version of this article also appeared in NRC Handelsblad on 19 February 2022
A version of this article also appeared in NRC on the morning of February 19, 2022