The first round of the presidential elections in Guatemala on Sunday brought a big surprise – and some hope for the democratic rule of law in the Central American country that has quickly broken down in recent years. Former first lady Sandra Torres will face anti-corruption candidate Bernardo Arévalo van Semilla in the second round on August 20. This social-democratic party (literally ‘Seed’) is a restart of the protest movement from 2015, when Guatemala demonstrated for weeks against the widespread corruption in politics and the judiciary.
Arévalo’s breakthrough left Guatemalans perplexed in the night from Sunday to Monday. The ballot box was viewed beforehand by many as a democratic farce, because the corrupted electoral council dubiously excluded three opposition candidates deemed promising from participation. Only candidates who did not threaten the power of a corrupt cabal of businessmen, intelligence agencies, the military and right-wing politicians were allowed to run.
Arévalo was not excluded, but with an average eighth place in the polls, it did not seem to pose a serious threat to the so-called ‘pact of the corrupt’. When the first results trickled in, he turned out to have been embraced by 12 percent of voters as a credible option against the status quo – enough to get through to the second round in the crowded field of 22 candidates.
Quarter votes blank or void
Many voters’ dissatisfaction with the lack of democracy in the presidential race was reflected, among other things, in the fact that a quarter of voters cast an invalid or blank vote. With 17.4 percent, the option ‘zero‘ (invalid) even more support than leader Torres (15.5 percent). Another 7 percent voted blank. The turnout of around 60 percent was relatively average for a first round.
Also read this background article: Guatemala’s untouchable elite retaliates at the ballot box
Another sign of Guatemala’s democratic resilience: Zury Ríos – the daughter of a dictator convicted of genocide, the late General Efraín Ríos Montt, the most contested candidate – got stuck at 6 percent of the vote.
The next eight weeks will show whether and how the higher powers in Guatemala will oppose the 64-year-old Arévalo. Getting him banned from participation now will be tricky, but there are plenty of other tried and tested techniques, such as filing charades against bribed judges, complaining about first-round disturbances, or launching hate and libel campaigns on social media. In recent years, dozens of prosecutors, lawyers, journalists, magistrates and other defenders of the democratic rule of law have been bullied out of the country in this way.
In his speech, Arévalo promised on Sunday night to return all these exiles to Guatemala. “We will form a government that fully recognizes the separation of powers,” he said. His rival and formerfirst lady Sandra Torres (67), who divorced the then centre-left president Álvaro Colom (2008-2012) in 2010, called herself ‘delighted’ early in the evening with her first place. “We’re going to win, against anyone.”
Son of liberal president
Arévalo’s party Semilla promises to complete the so-called ‘Guatemalan Spring’ of 2015. After the ‘International Commission against Impunity and Corruption in Guatemala’ (CICIG), set up by the United Nations, exposed a major customs scandal involving then-President Otto Pérez Molina and his entourage, thousands of citizens took to the streets that year. Pérez Molina eventually had to resign and ended up in jail, but CICIG was quickly chased out of the country by his successors, after which the rule of law ended up in a slide.
Semilla was led in the previous presidential race, in 2019, by former CICIG prosecutor Thelma Aldana, but she was excluded from participation before the first round. Arévalo is the son of former president Juan José Arévalo, who was elected in 1945 with 85 percent of the vote shortly after a revolution against the then military dictatorship. In six years of presidency, the self-proclaimed “spiritual socialist” would implement major liberal reforms and take on the all-powerful American agro giant United Fruit Company.