A frontal offensive against a well-entrenched enemy, without air support. What Ukraine is trying to do is extremely difficult militarily. But one weak spot will suffice.
Where is the fighting now?
The long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive has begun. After Russian President Putin, Ukrainian President Zelensky also confirmed this in so many words last weekend.
Ukraine is conducting offensive operations in at least four places along the 900-kilometer front. In the south in the province of Zaporizhia, Ukrainian soldiers try to advance in a brutal landscape: flat farmland with little cover and heavily developed Russian positions. About 100 kilometers to the east, they try the same in an old mining area with accumulations. The main objective of both spearheads is to reach the Sea of Azov and to cut the Russian land bridge to Crimea in half.
Then there is Bachmut. In the hills around the eastern city, the Ukrainians gained almost 1.5 kilometers of territory, the Ukrainian army command reported last weekend. An encirclement and recapture of Bachmut would be primarily a symbolic victory. Russian troops were only able to capture the city in May after 9 months of bloody fighting. Finally, there are confrontations at Bilohorivka, a place in Luhansk north of Bachmut. Less interesting in terms of location far from the sea, but it is also less well defended than the positions in the south.
Everything indicates that Ukraine is probing the front, looking for a weak point in the Russian defenses where they can force a breakthrough. “We also see this in the composition of the deployed battalions,” says Belgian professor Kris Quanten of the Royal Military School. The reconnaissance units use lighter armored vehicles, such as American Bradleys, supported by a few tanks. “When the real breakthrough begins, the armored fist will be deployed. Then you will mainly see Leopard 2 tanks to break through those first lines.”
How disturbing are the Ukrainian losses?
For days now, the Russians have been eagerly sharing images of a failed Ukrainian advance in Zaporizhia. A Leopard 2 tank and some Bradleys were knocked out. The discouraging images do not mean that the offensive has failed, writes American military analyst Philips O’Brien in his blog. “One battle in itself is unimportant for the further course of the war.”
Nevertheless, Ukraine is attempting something extraordinarily difficult: a frontal offensive against a well-entrenched enemy, without close air support. According to an analysis of The New York Times at least four of the advanced Leopard 2 tanks were already lost.
There is no doubt that it is difficult, says Quanten. “But we should not fixate on those first losses. They were factored in.” Ukraine is still keeping most of its offensive forces low. According to The New York Times, it still has hundreds of Western tanks and armored cars, and the “real attack” will be one of the largest operations in Europe since 1945.
How good is the Russian defense?
The Ukrainian flag has been flying again in the southern village of Blagodatne since Sunday, but the Ukrainian army command is still mostly silent. Not to make Russia wiser than necessary, but perhaps also because there is still little territorial gain to brag about.
In Zaporizhia in particular, minefields and well-equipped lines make it difficult for Ukraine to force a breakthrough. If the first Russian line “breaks”, the second line successfully launches counterattacks, according to the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW). They are aided in this by electronic weapons that would disrupt Ukrainian communication and GPS signals.
Quanten is somewhat surprised that Ukraine is even trying in the well-defended south. “Russia has positions in the depths, with a line every 15 to 20 kilometers.” The front lines are expected to have the most experienced soldiers Russia has to offer. The question is what happens when Ukraine reaches the third or fourth line and Russia has to deploy reserves. Although it is also possible that the offensive will take place somewhere else entirely. “The front is 900 kilometers long. It has weaknesses. It is up to the Ukrainians to find it.”