EL PERIÓDICO offers this Sunday, May 21, a new update of the Predilect prediction market to know the evolution of the vote estimate and the most likely government formula in the municipal elections in Barcelona. The result of a research project at the University of Zurich, this electoral tool works like a stock market and is based on the transactions of a notable group of specialists in political, social and economic sciences.
WHAT IS A PREDICTIONS MARKET?
The battle for Barcelona City Hall It appears as close or more than four years ago, with four main candidates in a handkerchief: Ada Colau, Ernest Maragall, Jaume Collboni and Xavier Trias. With the electoral campaign already underway, the political tableau continues to be very even and full of unknowns as to who will win the elections and what alliances will be forged after the elections. The absolute majority in the consistory is set at 21 councilorsso that the winner or winner of the elections could be forced to seek agreements with more than one formation to reach the mayoralty.
In this latest update, Barcelona in Comú remains in the lead as the main favorite to win the mayoralty, but has seen its advantage cut by 2.3 points over the PSC. If yesterday Colau took 21.8 points from Collboni, today the difference has gone back to 19.5 points. Despite the fact that the expectations of the current mayoress have grown 1.5 points in the last 24 hours, those of the socialist candidate have increased 3.7 points. Barcelona en Comú now has a 52.5% of probabilities of revalidating the mayoralty, while the options of the PSC to conquer it are located in a 32.96%.
For its part, the distance between the PSC and Junts, which is still in third place, has increased from 13.5 to 21.6 points after Trias has lost 4.4 points compared to the previous day. Now JxCat’s options to win the mayoralty are at a 11.33%. Regarding the expectations of ERC, winner of the municipal elections in 2019, they remain in a 1.68%four tenths less than 24 hours ago.
The following graph shows the evolution of the probabilities of each political force since the beginning of the series of predictions.
As for the most probable government, the formula that preserves the most probabilities is the left-wing tripartite between Barcelona en Comú, PSC and ERC (51.48%), 6.4 points less than the previous day. The chances of an agreement between Together, PSC and PP (17.59%), whether through support or abstention, have grown 6.8 points since yesterday.
Other pact options stay further away, such as the pro-independence tripartite between Junts, ERC and CUP (2.67%, two tenths less than yesterday) or an agreement between Together, PSC and ERC (1.26%, one tenth less than the previous day). However, the possibilities that the mayoralty be resolved through any other formula They stand at 26.99%, one tenth less than yesterday.
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In 2019, ERC won the Barcelona en Comú elections by just six tenths and 4,696 votes, but both forces tied 10 councilors. Colau prevented Maragall from unseating him as mayor thanks to his government pact with the PSC and the abstention of Valls’s coalition.
Predilect is the only mechanism that allows you to follow the last minute of electoral expectations beyond the polls and until the same election daygiven the legal prohibition of publishing opinion polls during the five days prior to the elections and until the polling stations close.