(New: new information from the electoral authority, more background on the third-place winner)
ISTANBUL (dpa-AFX) – After 20 years in power, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to face a runoff election for the first time. With 99 percent of the ballot boxes counted in Germany and around 84 percent abroad, Erdogan has 49.40 percent of the votes, said the head of the electoral authority, Ahmet Yener, in Ankara on Monday, according to the state news agency Anadolu. Opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu came to 44.96 percent. Both missed the absolute majority of 50 percent, which is why a runoff election on May 28 is the most likely scenario.
The decisive factor in the runoff could be how the electorate of third-placed Sinan Ogan from the ultra-nationalist Ata Alliance behaves. So far it is unclear whether Ogan will make an election recommendation, how it would turn out and whether his divided supporters would follow it. It is not certain that Erdogan would benefit.
The final results had not been announced as of Monday morning. It was unclear when to expect that. Voters with a Turkish passport in Germany and other countries would be able to vote in the event of a runoff between May 20 and 24.
Outsiders play an important role
In view of the election thriller between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu, third-placed Ogan rated his weak performance (around 5.2 percent) as a success. He now wanted to discuss further action with his camp. “We will never allow Turkey to get into a crisis,” said Ogan on Monday night.
Erdogan’s government alliance is ahead in parliamentary elections
The electoral authority did not initially announce the result of the parliamentary election. However, it became apparent that Erdogan’s government alliance was able to defend its majority. Since the introduction of a presidential system in 2018, the president has had far-reaching powers, but the parliament with its 600 MPs has been weakened.
Choice important for the future of the country
The election was seen as indicative. It is feared that the NATO country could become even more autocratic for another five years under Erdogan. Kilicdaroglu ran as a candidate for a broad coalition of six parties. He promises a return to a parliamentary system, democracy and the rule of law. The developments in Turkey were also closely observed internationally because of their importance for conflicts in the region such as the Syrian war and for the relationship with the EU and Germany.
War of nerves over numbers
Already at the beginning of the voting there were doubts about the figures published by the Anadolu State Agency. The opposition mayors of the metropolises of Istanbul and Ankara accused the government of praising Erdogan’s values. Kilicdaroglu accused Erdogan’s AKP party of blocking the count in opposition strongholds with objections. Erdogan again accused the opposition of “stealing the national will”.
Erdogan counted – opposition combative
Even if Erdogan can still win in two weeks – the result is a setback for the 69-year-old. Since he was first elected prime minister in 2003, he has won every national election. He has been President since 2014. The runoff election loses his aura of invincibility. Erdogan was in a good mood in front of cheering supporters in Ankara on Monday night and started a song.
The 74-year-old Kilicdaroglu appeared in front of the press that night together with the party leaders of his six-party alliance. “Despite his defamation and insults, Erdogan did not achieve the result he expected,” he said.
New situation for everyone involved
All sides are now confronted with a completely new situation – there has never been a runoff. The president has only been directly elected by the people since 2014.
Parliament could be decisive
All eyes are now on the Grand National Assembly in Ankara. Erdogan’s Islamic-conservative AKP and its ultra-nationalist partner MHP will probably be able to hold their absolute majority there. Should Kilicdaroglu win a runoff election, the parliament and president could theoretically block each other, which could lead to a government crisis. Erdogan seems to want to use this scenario for the election campaign in the two weeks before the runoff. He was certain that voters would prefer “security and stability” in a runoff, he said that night.
While the President can issue a decree without the approval of Parliament, if Parliament passes a law on the same subject, the decree would become invalid. In any case, there will be a difficult two weeks ahead of Turkey. The national currency, the lira, could continue to lose value due to the uncertain situation.
Voting went smoothly – election campaign unfair
The election campaign was also marked by the devastating earthquake of February 6 in south-eastern Turkey. How high the voter turnout was in the affected regions will be shown at the end of the count. According to an initial assessment by the competent authority, the election ran smoothly. Opposition politicians reported minor incidents from various provinces.
The election campaign was considered unfair, also because of the government’s superior media power. Erdogan had sharply attacked the opposition and described his opponent as a “drunkard” and “terrorist”. The opposition countered with a positive campaign. Even before the runoff, Erdogan will be able to rely on most of the media and the government majority in parliament.
How do Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu campaign for votes?
Erdogan primarily advertises with election gifts, such as increasing civil servant salaries and major infrastructure projects defense industry. Kilicdaroglu promises to fight corruption and inflation and to democratize the country. When it comes to migration, he adopts a nationalist tone. He wants to send back the approximately 3.5 million refugees from Syria and renegotiate the refugee agreement with the EU.
A total of around 64 million people were asked to vote, around 3.4 million of them abroad./jam/DP/mis