The decline seems to have bottomed out at 40%. In these values, the purchase and sale of real estate in the City of Buenos Aires grew, last March, 21.7%, according to official data. But suddenly, the currency run appeared on the scene and the market felt the impact. “If the blue continues to rise, the trend will indeed be downward, because there will be people with savings in dollars looking for opportunities and who will make lower offers“, it states Jose IribarrenCommercial Director of EIDICO.
Bone scan. According to the latest survey of the real estate market in AMBA of prices of the properties that they carry out Free market and UDESA“the sale value per meter in dollars of houses and apartments presented a year-on-year drop (compared to March 2022) of 0.6% and 6.9%, respectively”. Likewise, the segment of houses and apartments in CABA has been declining since June 2021 and April 2019, respectively. “At the margin, there seem to be signs of a change in the trend in house prices in all the rest of the agglomerates (progressively abandoning the negative trend)”the report highlights.
In turn, if the stock of publications of active properties located in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires (AMBA) is considered, in March 2023, interannual variations were registered in the median sale price in dollars per meter in houses and apartments. (also compared to March 2022) of -0.6%, and in departments of -6.9%. “Distinguishing between CABA and Greater Buenos Aires (GBA) North, South and West, intermonthly variations are observed (in relation to February 2023) in the price per square meter in dollars of houses of -0.5% in CABA, of +14.3 % in GBA North, +6.4% in GBA South and +0.9% in GBA West. On the other hand, in the apartment market, in March there were variations in the value in dollars per meter of -0.2% in CABA, -1.1% in GBA Norte, +1.1% in GBA Sur, and -0.4% in GBA West, relative to February 2023”, expands.
German Gomez Picassoof Real Estate Report, confirms that the drop has already accumulated 40% measured in dollars in four consecutive years, “but it has been two quarters since it moderated and in some cases there is even a plateau of values. I really believe that properties that are obviously well priced are not going to go down any further.” Iribarren adds: “I consider that, for now, there is no downward trend in the operations that are completed,” he explains. From his point of view, if there were a bigger fall, it would be “in specific cases”, such as, for example, if a person needs to sell “yes or yes”, so they must propose a more attractive value to close the operation.
Values. Gómez Picasso does not doubt: “we are at ‘floor’ values: today, the average price for used apartments is US$1,500 per meter for CABA, US$1,400 for the main squares in GBA and US$970 for the main squares in the interior”, ensures. And he rounds off: “always talking about averages. In fact, this floor caused the demand to begin to activate in GBA and the interior, but not so much in CABA.
“This is the best time to buy a property in Argentina. The prices that can be achieved today are really convenient for those who buy their property to live in as well as for investors -taking into account that profitability has also improved significantly-“, he stresses Mariano Garcia Malbranpresident of the Argentine Chamber Real Estate Companies (CAMESI). From his point of view, the price is already beginning to recover. “Currently we are at the floor value of the metro in CABA, in the large cities of the country and in the northern zone (Pilar and Tigre). The real estate market for buying and selling began a recovery and this trend does not seem to stop. In this scenario Real estate prices will start to rise slowly, but steadily.”
Another factor that weighs is the political one. “Because it is an election year, the panorama is more complicated and the operations that are effectively closed are those that have the vocation to be carried out”, adds Iribarren. “It will be a year very similar to 2022 in activity and all eyes will be on what happens with the elections. With this plateau in values and even moderate rises in some, the market is assuming that political changes are coming.”emphasizes Gómez Picasso.
What are the most demanded properties and areas? Iribarren answers: “Regarding the most required units, they are girls (with one to three rooms) and well located (near urban centers, in our case Escobar, Pilar, Tigre and Canning in Buenos Aires), close to services, public transport and in consolidated areas, such as those of our Villa Nueva (Tigre), Canning Village (Canning), San Sebastián and Pilar del Este (Pilar) complexes”. In the City of Buenos Aires, the preferred areas are Palermo, Recoleta, Caballito and Belgrano, in that order. In the northern zone, the private neighborhoods of Pilar and Tigre are the preferred ones, and on the Atlantic coast, the area of Pinamar Norte and Costa Esmeralda”adds García Malbrán.
Finally, Gómez Picasso maintains that two-bedroom apartments with a ticket of up to US$150,000 located in medium-density neighborhoods are being sought. “They want spacious rooms with an integrated kitchen, a terraced balcony, and concepts of sustainability. The towers are very attractive and with modern architecture, with amenities and a coworking space”, he points out.
Demand requirements in a market that, just when it showed signs of having found a floor in its values, is facing a new currency run that could stop the wind of recovery.
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