EL PERIÓDICO offers a new update of the Predilect prediction market to know the evolution of the vote estimate and the most likely government formula in the municipal elections in Barcelona. The result of a research project at the University of Zurich, this electoral tool works like a stock market and is based on the transactions of a notable group of specialists in political, social and economic sciences.
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The battle for Barcelona City Hall It appears as close or more close than four years ago, with four main candidates in a handkerchief: Ada Colau, Ernest Maragall, Jaume Collboni and Xavier Trias. With one month to go before the elections, the political tableau continues to be very even and full of unknowns about who will win the elections and what alliances will be forged after the elections. The absolute majority in the consistory is set at 21 councilorsso that the winner or winner of the elections could be forced to seek agreements with more than one formation to reach the mayoralty.
In the update for this Thursday, April 27, Barcelona in Comú has lost much of its lead as the frontrunner for mayor and the PSC It is only one point away, when yesterday that difference was 18 points. Colau has a 35.15% likely to repeat as mayor, while Collboni’s options are in the 34.01%. The Socialists, for their part, have also widened their distance over three points together, which is now 8.7 points. Trias’ chances of taking over the mayoralty are in the 25.3%. Regarding the expectations of CKDwinner in 2019, have fallen to the 2.55%.
In the last 24 hours, Colau has lost almost 11 points and Collboni It has risen 6.78 points. For his part, Trias has added 3.66 points and maragall It has fallen three tenths. The distance in the lead between Colau and Collboni has been reduced by 17 points in the last 24 hours. Since April began, Barcelona in Comú has left more than six points, the PSC has improved 10 points, together has lost three and a half points, already CKD you missed a point.
The following graph shows the evolution of the probabilities of each political force since the beginning of the series of predictions.
As for the most likely government, there has been a turnaround for the second day in a row. The formula that now has the most probabilities is the left-wing tripartite between Barcelona en Comú, PSC and ERC (37.5%), which repeats the same percentage of the previous day. However, the agreement between Together, PSC and PP (31.8%), either through support or abstention, has fallen 10 points in the last 24 hours. Other pact options stay further away, such as the pro-independence tripartite between Junts, ERC and CUP (9.53%, five more points) or an agreement between Together, PSC and ERC (4.87%, one more point). The rest of the formulas are located around a 17% of possibilities, four more points.
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In 2019, ERC won the Barcelona en Comú elections by just six tenths and 4,696 votes, but both forces tied 10 councilors. Colau prevented Maragall from unseating him as mayor thanks to his government pact with the PSC and the abstention of Valls’s coalition.
Predilect is the only mechanism that allows you to follow the last minute of electoral expectations beyond the polls and until the same election daygiven the legal prohibition of publishing opinion polls during the five days prior to the elections and until the polling stations close.