By Sebastian Bauer
Journalist Hans-Ulrich Jörges has written a disturbing thriller about Donald Trump’s re-election with Axel Vormbaumen. A BZ conversation
In a good mood and with a book under his arm, Hans-Ulrich Jörges (71) arrives at Café Einstein Unter den Linden. The man, who is considered to be one of the most astute political analysts in the country, seems to enjoy writing the novel.
With “Abaddon” (Lübbe, 22 euros), which he wrote with colleague Axel Vormbaumen, he has now presented a gripping secret service thriller in which Donald Trump wins the presidential elections again in 2024 and subsequently delivers Europe to Vladimir Putin. We talked to Jörges about dictators, the danger of war and strategies to get out of trouble.
BZ: In your book, Donald Trump becomes president again. How realistic is that?
Hans-Ulrich Jörges: Before Trump’s first election, I remember reading everywhere in Germany that he would never win because he was too crazy. But, as you know, things turned out differently. You have to keep in mind that Joe Biden will be 82 when the election is held and that he’s already getting a bit fuzzy these days. The Americans are observing this much more closely than we are.
Is that why Donald Trump, who is almost as old, is being elected?
This does not necessarily mean that Donald Trump will be re-elected. But it can happen. That’s why I wonder why Emmanuel Macron was so unanimously condemned when he formulated greater independence for Europe from the United States. Because when Trump becomes president, he will want to make a deal with Putin and we Europeans could suddenly be left alone. We should adjust to that. When that happens, we will no longer recognize the world. Then God help us!
In the book, Putin loses the Ukraine war but remains in power. You described a victory for Ukraine as unrealistic. Has your assessment changed?
I still believe that Ukraine will probably not get back all the occupied territories. The Russians will no longer give up Crimea and certain areas in eastern Ukraine. I see the only way out of the war in overthrowing Putin or in an assassination attempt on him.
Is this realistic?
It is possible that the military leadership or the secret service will come to the conclusion that Putin’s policies will seriously undermine them and that his actions will cause massive damage to Russia. Then it could happen that someone picks up a pistol and shoots him, and then we’re dealing with a completely different system. But nobody can be seen from here who could succeed Putin. And so it could also happen that Putin and Trump are in power at the same time. But nobody in political Berlin seems to be concerned with this constellation.
To what extent is the novel based on actual events?
In any case, the most daring descriptions are usually not the ones that are unreal. I don’t want to reveal too much, but the passage with the North Korean nuclear submarine comes from a study in which the CIA simulates this process and explains it as possible. I wouldn’t have thought of it.
How was it possible for you to research details about the work of the secret services?
This always succeeds when breakdowns happen. Like now in the US, when a 21-year-old pierced secret documents. And then there is the possibility of learning something from the political control bodies if they leak information. In democratically governed states, nothing stays hidden forever.
With all these real world challenges and dramas. Was it easy for you to top that with fiction?
Of course, the book is just a thriller. But I do believe that if Trump and Putin ruled at the same time, it would be devastating. Then what we are now experiencing in Ukraine could only be a gallop.
Sounds like potentially bad times.
That could be. That’s why we have to start today to bring Europe together and to make it clear to the Americans what Europe thinks of Trump and what disadvantages they would have with him as president.