EL PERIÓDICO offers this Tuesday the first installment of the Predilect prediction market to know the evolution of the vote estimate and the most likely government formula in the municipal elections in badalona. The result of a research project at the University of Zurich, this electoral tool works like a stock market and is based on the transactions of a notable group of specialists in political, social and economic sciences.
WHAT IS A PREDICTIONS MARKET?
Badalona promises to continue giving people talk. After a mandate with motion of censurethe polls will decide again if Xavier Garcia Albiol has a new opportunity. It will be the ninth time that the controversial leader of the PP attends in a town that has been governed by four different mayors in 10 years after two motions of censure and one resignation. The quadripartite government, with external support from guanyemhas managed to prosper with good harmony between the partners, although in fits and starts.
In the first installment, this Tuesday, April 25, the PP part with a 62.6% probability of recovering the mayoralty of Badalona, while the options for CKD are located in the 24.2%. The expectations of PSCwho currently holds the staff of command, remain in the 8.27%.
Related news
Albiol began the month of April with its best data, touching the 60% chance to get the mayoralty, but so far this month their expectations have fallen more than 10 points. Since the series of predictions began, ERC has always been above the PSC, although both started April practically tied about 22%which means that the Socialists have dropped 14 points this month.
Predilect is the only mechanism that allows you to follow the last minute of electoral expectations beyond the polls and until the same election daygiven the legal prohibition of publishing opinion polls during the five days prior to the elections and until the polling stations close.