An elderly Polish diplomat recently said that Russian colleagues have been asking him the same question since the 1990s, anywhere in the world: why do you Poles no longer want to belong to us? Why have you turned west? What is it that attracts you to Europe? Our culture is much richer and better, isn’t it?
“That question still genuinely concerns many Russians,” said the Pole. “They really want to know. They do not believe that after 1989 former Eastern bloc countries immediately wanted to become members of NATO and the EU. They think those organizations pulled us in. Those assumptions, and the inability to accept that they have lost their old sphere of influence for good, explain why President Putin embarked on his disastrous military adventure in Ukraine.”
Many Russians, it is his impression, really expected that most Ukrainians would give them a warm welcome. Many Russians do not accept that many Ukrainians would rather belong to the West, and that the EU and NATO were not at all enthusiastic about this at first. That is why the Poles remain afraid that Russia will attack them again one day. They say: after Ukraine, we are next. Look at history!
For years, we Westerners thought the Poles posers. We found them and the Balts hysterical about the Russian danger. Now that Russia has invaded Ukraine and routinely threatens EU countries, we better understand their fear and listen to them better. Poland is now a frontline: weapons, refugees, humanitarian aid and VIPs go through Poland to Ukraine. The country, long marginalized in the EU by the rule of law dispute, is now logistically, militarily and politically a powerhouse.
But we don’t really think through the consequences of this. We hardly realize that Poland, now that it has been ‘right’ about Russia and has the highest word in Brussels on everything that has to do with security, defense and the future of Ukraine, is itself a few steps further – with a slanted eye on history.
Like this Prime Minister Morawiecki said this week that he wants a new economic community in Central and Eastern Europe, in which Ukraine participates. There are also those who want to go further and want a Union between Poland and Ukraine. That’s less insane than it seems. From the sixteenth century, Poland formed a huge Commonwealth with Lithuania for two hundred years, to which large parts of Ukraine belonged. Again: almost all Poles think that Russia, given the chance, will attack their country. Russian missiles and projectiles hit just tens of kilometers from the Polish border. Poland is a bit like West Germany during the Cold War: a Western country in the immediate enemy line of fire. If NATO comes to blows with Russia, Poland will likely be the battlefield.
Still is the security doctrine of the Polish intellectual Jerzy Giedroyc (1906-2000) relevantfrom the 1970s, which argues that Poland must do everything to keep its eastern neighbors independent, stable and democratic (sic) in order to guarantee its own security.
A Polish-Ukrainian Union protects Poland and can help Ukraine join the EU without endless waiting, argues Slovak Dalibor Rohac in Foreign Policy – just as East Germany became a member immediately after the fall of the Wall thanks to German unification. Western European countries probably don’t like the idea of such a huge Polish state. This upsets the balance of power in Europe. But in a large, reunified Germany, nobody saw anything either, in 1989. Yet it happened.
As things begin to shift, we need to delve into the history of countries in and close to the vortex. And in their traumas. We failed to do that in Russia. If we do not want to be faced with surprises again and want to keep our fingers on the buttons in Europe, we must stay awake. And be more careful with Poland.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of April 1, 2023