Since the beginning of the conflict, Ankara has tried to show itself as the only country capable of mediating between kyiv and Moscow and small agreements have been reached
The images that emerged from that meeting are few but clear: several Ukrainian soldiers from the Azov regiment they embrace their wives, they run to put their children on their backs. There are infinite kisses and tears. They had spent months locked up in the Azovstal plant in the port of Mariupol, besieged, almost sentenced to death for a Russian army who conquered the entire city and who only had to deal with a small resistance doomed to defeat.
The meeting took place last October, a month after the men’s release, and although all the soldiers, women and children were Ukrainian, the meeting was not in Ukrainian territory but an indeterminate place of Turkey.
Since then, these meetings continue to take place, although now without spotlights or cameras. Always in Turkey, far from the battle in Ukraine. And it will continue to be so: 215 Ukrainian soldiers who defended the Azovstal plant and who were exchanged for 55 Russian soldiers will not be able to return to their country until the war ends. This was the Russian condition for the agreement of prisoner exchangewhich was achieved with the mediation of the Anatolian country.
One year after the start of the invasion of Ukraine, only a bridge connecting the West and Moscow; and this goes through Ankara, the Turkish capital. “Turkey has been trying to use the russian invasion to increase your regional influence and global using a mediating role,” writes Ukrainian analyst Ilya Kusamember of thethink tank Carnegie International. “The Ukrainian grain agreement signed in istanbul in July 2022 it was a precedent. Russia is prepared to carry out small commitments in exchange for the sanctions being relaxed, and seems to have no objection to Recep Tayyip Erdogan have the role of mediator. Ukraine does not seem to be opposed to this mediation either,” he adds.
two bands
Thus, from the beginning, the Erdogan government has been playing both sides. While Turkey has sent military aid and sold its Bayraktar drones to kyivhas been the only NATO country that has refused to impose sanctions on Russiaand which has also kept its economy and doors fully open to all Russians who want to leave their country or take their money from there.
Ankara, it is true, had few options: with an inflationary crisis running rampant, imposing sanctions on the country of Vladimir Putin would have sunk one even more economy already in serious trouble.
Over the past few months, Erdogan has maintained meetings and phone calls constant with Putin. The two are friends, and as the war in Ukraine rages on, the two leaders have agreed to further link their economies. Russia, for example, is building the first nuclear plant on turkish soiland agreed to sell its gas on favorable terms to Ankara to get around the difficulties of exporting to Europe.
For Turkey, however, there are risks. This month, a senior government official US Treasury Department traveled to the country to send a warning: companies and governments that make deals with sanctioned Russian companies will be punished with secondary sanctions.
“Individuals and institutions operating in overly permissive jurisdictions risk potentially losing their access to G-7 country markets in response to doing business with sanctioned entities,” an anonymous member of the US team told Reuters news agency.
“It’s not a surprise…Russia is actively trying to use its force in the historical economic relations you have with Turkey. The question now is what will it be? the turkish answer“said this anonymous source.