The invasion of Ukraine celebrates one year with the fronts stagnant in the east, a devastated country, a dramatic report of casualties, refugees and internally displaced persons and the certainty that the attack unleashed by Russia has upset all the forecasts for the future on a global scale made before February 24, 2022. At the same time, the Western support given to Volodimir Zelensky has prevented the invasion from progressing and has made, in front of the initial predictions of a certain victory for Putin, Ukraine’s chances are multiplied. At least, that it can face a negotiated solution to the conflict on an equal footing with Russia that allows the aggressor to demand the return of the occupied territories, as Deputy Prime Minister Irina Vereshchuk stated in EL PERIÓDICO. Something that will only be possible if it is maintained the effort of NATO partners to provide the Ukrainian Army with the necessary resources to continue responding to aggression on the ground.
Vladimir Putin’s announcement of an increase in Russia’s nuclear arsenals, just two days after announcing Russia’s withdrawal from the New START treaty, hardly increases the risks inherent in a long war, with the invader blocked and a qualitative improvement in Ukrainian resources to deal with aggression – the next shipment of Leopard 2 tanks and ammunition – to counter the predicted next Russian offensive, aimed at recovering lost ground in Donbas and expanding the corridor with Crimea. Putin’s message is certainly a threat, but It is also a challenge to China’s doctrine, its great strategic partner, completely opposed to escalating to the nuclearization of the war, however limited it may be.
Even so, the Western allies should limit assistance to Ukraine to adjust to reality the calculation of risks they assume. It is enough to observe the amount and quality of the aid in the first months of the war and the current one to reach the conclusion that it is inevitable to draw some red lines in solidarity with Ukraine. To such a need must be attributed the public refusal of President Joe Biden to supply Kiev with combat aircraft, and it is likely that this is his position in the case of the medium and long-range missiles that Zelensky calls for.
has not occurred the military walk that Putin expected to take over Ukraine when he unleashed the attack, the reaction of Ukrainian society to defend its country and preserve its sovereignty has gone beyond any calculation and the possibility that Russia will be forced to accept some form of agreed outcome it is no longer an illusion. But the damage in terms of security and instability, economic and social caused by the war calls for a permanent exercise of prudence so that the globalization of war does not cause more havoc. In general terms, the idea of how many think that it will always be more stable is still justified. a peace without handcuffing Russia than taking her against the ropes. Should such a thing happen, the crisis would enter into a much less predictable dynamic than the assumptions that are now being considered with good reason.