The war in Ukraine fuels anti-government movements in the Netherlands and determines the country’s future security and prosperity. The General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD) and the Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) stated this in a Monday joint publication. The intelligence services see the war as a “turning point in history”.
According to the intelligence services, the conflict is “a breeding ground for anti-institutional extremism”. These extremists believe that the government uses its power to oppress the people and invent crises to legitimize these actions. The war in Ukraine is also viewed in this light. In addition, the intelligence services note that the extremist movement is predominantly pro-Russian and that President Vladimir Putin is seen as a “savior” in the fight against the West. This attitude makes the movement more susceptible to influence from Russia. The AIVD has no indications that groups of Dutch people with extremist views traveled to Ukraine to participate in the war.
Another way in which the war in Ukraine directly affects the Netherlands is through the energy supply. Because Russia restricts the gas supply to Europe, the market has become tight, resulting in high gas prices. These prices can lead to dissatisfaction. These consequences will last for a long time, because the intelligence services do not expect the war to be over any time soon.