The first 48 hours after an earthquake are crucial, after that the chance of survival decreases rapidly. “The question that authorities then ask themselves is: how long will you continue to commit materially to a miracle?”
Stories about people being pulled out alive from collapsed buildings, such as after the earthquake in Turkey and Syria in the night from Sunday to Monday, often make the news. This makes it seem as if many people can still be saved after days. In reality that is not the case, says Thea Hilhorst, professor of humanitarian studies at Erasmus University. “Those are the miracles, the exceptional cases. The first 24 hours are the most important, the first 48 hours crucial. After that, the chance of survival decreases rapidly.”
Although there are always miraculous events. “After a week, two weeks, a month. It occurs, but is rare and involves loners. The survivability line drops rapidly after those 48 hours. If someone has oxygen, can get to water, it can last longer.”
This became clear in 2008, when an elderly man in China managed to survive for 266 hours after a devastating earthquake in the southwest of the country. The man was trapped under a beam and his wife had managed to give him water. In 2005, a Pakistani woman managed to survive under the rubble for more than two months because she could reach leftover food and rainwater.
Even if the place where someone is lying is isolated, people can last longer. “It also depends on many other factors,” says Hilhorst. “Each situation is unique in that respect, so in a general sense little can be said about it. The dilemma for the authorities – and with it the rescue teams – nevertheless quickly becomes after a few days: how much equipment do we continue to use for a miracle? Because equipment is also badly needed elsewhere for help, for example to repair roads. The question of when rescue teams will continue elsewhere is a difficult one. Ultimately, it is important that bodies are also removed from under the rubble, of course. So that relatives can bury their loved ones.”
National Commander Arjen Littooij, attached to the Urban Search and Rescue Team (USAR), which is working in the current disaster area, previously indicated that the most important mission is to retrieve the living from the rubble. “That is why we only stay for about ten days, after which the chance of survivors is nil.” Yet the Dutch rescue workers do more. “In this total disruption, upheaval and havoc, we bring structure and hope, just by our presence. Those affected do not know where to start, are in shock among the ruins of their lives. When we make a start, they join in.”
Hope brings life after disasters such as in Turkey and Syria. Several miracles of the past are known. After an earthquake in 1977, a Romanian man was pulled alive from under the rubble after eleven days. In total, he had been unable to eat or drink for 252 hours. Doctors who examined him spoke of a medical miracle. In Mexico, some babies survived under rubble for a week after an earthquake in 1985. They had not suffered from hypothermia. For example, an eighteen-month-old baby was found in a collapsed house after six days, and two children aged 5 and 8 managed to survive for nine days.
Often it is children who survive, also in Turkey and Syria. For example, a rescue worker pulled a newborn baby alive from the debris in the Syrian town of Jinderis on Monday afternoon. The girl was still connected to her mother through the umbilical cord. Her mother, Afraa Abu Hadiya, gave birth while under the rubble and did not survive the disaster herself. Doctors say the girl was just hours old when she was rescued. “If she had been there an hour longer, she would not have survived,” said one of the doctors.
In the same area, little Nour was also liberated. Images show how people dig with their bare hands until suddenly the smiling face of the girl can be seen. Two young children were also rescued after 36 hours under the rubble in the Syrian village of Besnaya-Bseineh. Images show how the brave girl Mariam protects her brother Ilaaf. She could move her arm just enough to shield his face from dust and debris.
In Malatya, Turkey, a baby was pulled from a destroyed building on Monday and, sixteen hours after the earthquake, 17-year-old Hulya Irem, in Kahramanmaras. In the same region, rescuers were able to locate a 5-year-old girl after hearing her scream. After a three-hour operation, the child was freed. She had been trapped under the rubble for 51 hours and was immediately taken to hospital.