A politician from the transition told me that in politics propaganda is essential, and that Winston Churchill had the proofs of the diary brought (he did not say which) and in the recension of his speeches it removed “applause & rdquor; and put “big applause & rdquor ;. I don’t know if the anecdote is true, but in that case Pedro Sánchez and Núñez Feijóo would be two ‘Churchillians’ because both they unapologetically resort to the most shameless self-promotion. The problem is when advertising collides with reality. It may be happening to you.
Sánchez is using that of “Spain is doing well & rdquor; of Aznar before the absolute majority of 2000. Spanish GDP grew 5.5% last year, above official forecasts. Inflation closed the year at 5.7%, the smallest in Europe. December ended with 20.5 million jobs, almost a million more than before the pandemic. And temporary employment – the great Spanish drama – has fallen in one year from 25% to 17.9%.
But the economy is not everything. Felipe González beat Aznar in 1993 in full recession. And he lost in 1996, when the economy was beginning to reactivate. Meanwhile, the PSOE and Felipe –due to corruption and the GAL– had lost a lot of credit. And Sánchez’s legal-political errors, not only the reduction of sentences for many convicted of sexual crimes – which was the opposite of what he intended the much publicized law of ‘only yes is yes’–, They are making you lose credibility.
Y In economics, not everything is gold. GDP growth has been 5.5% in 2022. But at the end of the year it has dropped to 0.2% and the annual rate has gone from 4.8% in the third quarter to 2.7% in the fourth. Therefore, despite the fact that the annual balance is positive, in the fourth quarter 81,800 jobs were lost. We are going from more to less and if in 2022, growing by 5.5%, the sociopolitical climate was what it was, what will happen in 2023 when, being optimistic -projections of the Government and the IMF-, Will the economy grow by 1% or 1.2%? There will be no recession, which was the great fear, but there will be a strong slowdown that will make the environment more inhospitable.
For his part, Núñez Feijóo snails through Andalusia because the polls give him ahead of the PSOE. But they also say that the PP he will not be able to govern without the support of Vox. When Feijóo preaches that the most voted list should govern – in the town halls and in the state government – he is saying several things. One, positive, that he does not want Vox’s crutch. Better than Sánchez, resigned to the pact with Podemos despite the stupidities of Irene Montero and Ione Belarra, who has just described Juan Roig (Mercadona) as a “ruthless capitalist& rdquor ;.
But the most voted list also indicates that Feijóo knows that Vox is his Achilles heel. Governing with Vox and being a valued partner in Berlin, Paris and Brussels is not easy. Although, true, attention to Meloni. And Abascal is skating with the postponed motion of no confidence against Sánchez. Feijóo believes that Abascal is not growing, but he does not want to govern with him like Manueco in Castilla-León.
And then there’s dying of success. What would be the political balance if the PP did well with the municipal ones, but then, to get mayoralties –for example, Madrid– I had to do government pacts –not external support– with Vox? Would it benefit you for the generals?
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That is why Feijóo says that the most voted list should govern. And that the PSOE allow his investiture if he arrives first and the PP do the same with Sánchez if the opposite happens. But that in a parliamentary regime the president of the Government is invested excluding and without counting on third parties and with extremes is complicated and not very reasonable. It is so. Going to the practical, it would be more feasible if there was a modicum of trust between the two leaders, which is what does not exist. Feijóo has repeatedly refused to renew the General Council of the Judiciary and Sánchez repeats – even on Tuesday, when the PP abstained from voting on the anti-crisis decree – that the PP is the most reactionary right in Europe. Claiming now that the most voted list govern seems like asking for pears from the elm tree.
They both want to win. But always demonize the adversary, What disturbs the functioning of democracy is perhaps not the best publicity weapon. And it is not Churchill who wants to, but who can.