interview
There has never been a winter transfer window after a football World Cup. Player advisor Jörg Neblung predicts “exciting transfers” in an interview with the sports show.
The winter transfer window opened on January 1, 2023. A time when a lot is traditionally happening: the rumor mill is churning, the phone is running hot for player advisors. Just like with Jörg Neblung. In an interview with the sports show, he looks at the coming weeks – and is surprised that many clubs are neglecting the goalkeeper position.
Sportschau: Mr. Neblung, the winter transfer window has been open for a few days. Is such a transfer phase in winter after a World Cup more exciting than usual?
Joerg Neblung: Not for me. Business is the same as in previous years. Players get injured either at the World Cup or while skiing, while they have otherwise injured themselves in the league. The need is still the same. It will be improved in winter. Only that the clubs have now had a little longer break.
So far, things have been relatively quiet for many Bundesliga clubs. Why is that?
fogging: Many clubs first have to give up players with whom they are not satisfied and thus free up budgets for new players. In the past, ten or fifteen years ago, people bought things first and then sold or rented them out. It’s different now, it’s managed more seriously. And you have to find the right player first, which is sometimes not that easy.
Due to the World Cup, the clubs have a little more time this year to deal with their squad. To what extent does this make itself felt on the transfer market?
fogging: The argument with my squad no longer works at the moment when the squad doesn’t play any competitive games. Many clubs from the 1st and 2nd leagues would have preferred to continue playing the season as normal until just before Christmas. Because then they would have known where they stand: does a young talent still make it into the team? Can my left-back handle the pressure? All of these questions could not be resolved. Now the clubs have to make sure that they recognize in the preparation which positions are needed.
Irrespective of the break, how will the World Cup affect transfers?
fogging: It has to be said that the players from Morocco successfully played their way into the shop window. There are a few others who showed at the World Cup that they can compete internationally. The World Cup was certainly a worthwhile event for them. But with these players we are talking about a very small fraction of the total transfer market. Fourth division clubs, third division clubs and smaller first division clubs from abroad don’t get involved at all.
Due to the corona pandemic, many clubs have less money available. Has the approach of German clubs to a transfer phase changed in recent years?
fogging: We’ve seen over the past few years that players’ youthfulness has been overemphasized. Developing transfer values is the keyword. That means, for example, I get a young talent like Jude Bellingham and develop him to the next market level. There are a few clubs that can afford it. But the run on these top talents is so great that the prices that are called for are unaffordable for many clubs. The players in their late twenties, who no longer play in the top class and who are suddenly no longer wanted on the market, suffer from this in particular. These are good players who can certainly help many clubs. But the overemphasis on this sales scheme has led to a change in the market.
How has your work as a consultant changed in recent years?
fogging: The market has become international and totally transparent due to digitization. My players from Germany have to compete with the whole world. This leads to the player from Dusseldorf fighting for a position with the player from Kuala Lumpur. That was different before. And that’s why the whole viewing and the consulting business work differently than before.
A big topic in these first days of January: Who will FC Bayern bring in as a replacement for Manuel Neuer?
fogging: We are all very excited. Especially since I was still in contact with Bayern until recently. A completely different profile was required. Everything was tailored to Manuel Neuer. That’s not so good, because we’re seeing now: it’s going to be very difficult to sign someone. And if I want quality, it will cost a lot of money. Many clubs tend to skimp on the goalkeeping position. That’s a huge mistake because it’s an absolutely key position in the game. I’m very excited to see what will happen at Bayern. A lot of nonsense is being written at the moment.
For example?
fogging: Bringing Alexander Nübel back would mean that Bayern would suddenly give the young goalkeeper a clear priority. That would call into question the whole scheme surrounding Manuel Neuer. The other is Kevin Trapp: Why should he go to Bayern at a time when he is doing great with Eintracht Frankfurt and wait for Manuel Neuer to get fit again or not? I didn’t really expect Yann Sommer either, because he’s actually in very good hands in Mönchengladbach and has achieved a status that not many players have.
As a consultant you are very close to the clubs. Will there be one or the other transfer surprise by the end of January?
fogging: Yes, I assume so. If investor money comes on the table for Kolo Muani, then a club like Eintracht Frankfurt will have to deal with it. Economic considerations play a role here. I think there could still be some exciting transfers. So we still have interesting weeks ahead of us until January 31st…
… and countless phone calls?
fogging: I agree. But after that it goes straight on because a few markets are still open after January 31st. And the planning for the next transfer window in the summer is pending. That means we won’t be standing on the beach in our swimming trunks on February 1st.