Almost every day a new number is added, a tragedy or a shocking story about the exodus of Cubans. The magnitude of the economic crisis, social and political that the Caribbean island is experiencing is reflected in an unprecedented hijra. In October, US Coast Guard ships 1,100 sailors were intercepted on the high seasIt’s more than the figure for all of 2021. According to the US Customs and Border Protection Office: a daily average of 891 Cubans entered illegally from Mexico in September, for a total of 26,742 in that month alone.
September 2022, the last month of the US government’s fiscal year, was a record month for Cuban migration: 224,607 Cubans arrived by land and another 10,000 attempted to cross the Florida Straits, although only about 3,000 made landfall. And a countless number of Cubans emigrated to other Caribbean countries. This migration from Cuba represented 2% of the country’s inhabitants, and more than 4% of its population of working age. “For the most part, it is the young people who leave. Many are professionals or skilled workers who have lost hope that things will improve,” explains economist Omar Everleny, who is among the many Cubans who have been warning about the alarming situation facing their nation.
The serious demographic problem threatens to jeopardize the future of the 11.1 million citizens who live in the country. In 2021, Cuba’s population decreased by 68,000, the fifth consecutive year of decline. The birth rate continues to fall and the population ages rapidly: 21% of Cubans are over 60 years old. This proportion is expected to rise to almost 30% by 2030, according to official projections, and this without taking into account the latest wave of emigration.
“Cuba is being drained of its youth. The future of the country has been dangerously mortgaged and this can only lead to more political and social instability,” stressed economist Ricardo Torres, who left his country to take up an academic position at the American University in Washington. “These are the structural problems that have afflicted the island for decades… and solving them will require a more capable public sector and years of work,” he prescribed.
Relations between Cuba and the United States thawed after the efforts of Pope Francis and during the last term of Barack Obama. And among the 24 agreements that were signed between both governments, one of the points on which there was the greatest agreement was on the need to regulate migratory flows. But relations with the island went downhill with former President Donald Trump, who undid Obama’s rapprochement with Havana, dismantled the consulate and brought sanctions and the embargo to record levels: Cubans consider it the ultimate cause of their growing hardships. .
Last week, under the December sun, a makeshift boat with an American flag painted on its bow suddenly appeared off the coast of Havana, with a dozen people on board. Like thousands of other Cubans in recent months, this group had been trying to reach the Florida coast, but apparently the motor of the boat broke down and they were at the mercy of the waves, which took them back to the shore of the Malecón. .
It had been more than 28 years since a similar scene had been seen in Havana. The last time was the summer of 1994 when, in the midst of another severe economic downturn on the island, the so-called rafter crisis broke out, expelling 35,000 people. The Cuban government at the time unleashed the rafters, and dozens of flimsy boats carrying migrants set off for the US from the Malecón, which was turned into a makeshift shipyard. Then, both countries signed migratory agreements that are still in force today, putting an end to that exodus.
Almost three decades later, the Cuban economy is sinking again and the hardships of the population have worsened to the point of resembling, or even exceeding, the shortcomings of the 1990s; when Cuba stopped receiving Soviet assistance after the dissolution of the USSR.
The current wave of emigration is already double the historic “Mariel exodus” in 1980, when 125,000 Cubans left the country. The difference is that at that time the United States encouraged the exodus to demonstrate the penalties in the countries of the communist axis. But these days, the Joe Biden administration, just like the Trump administration. he does not want any more Cuban immigrants and is trying to end this crisis through discreet negotiations with the government of Miguel Díaz-Canel.
For the US, it is Cuba’s inability to provide citizens with basic services such as electricity that is fueling the current exodus, while for the Díaz-Canel government it is the stifling embargo and US policy of benefits. for Cuban migrants, including those arriving illegally. which encourages the mass exodus. In this cycle of mutual accusations, ordinary citizens are ping-pong balls, subject to fluctuations in political circumstances.
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