Who will reach the round of 16 with which result? These are the constellations after the 2nd matchday in Group C.
The only thing that is clear in preliminary round group C is that nothing is clear yet: After two matchdays, all four teams can still progress at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. What is the starting position for the teams?
Who has which round of 16 chances?
Leads after two games Poland Group C with four points – ahead of Argentina (3). In a direct duel on the third day of play, a draw would be enough for Robert Lewandowski and Co. to make it safely into the round of 16, since they would stay ahead of the South Americans with a draw and in the parallel game only Saudi Arabia (so far 3 points) would beat them with a win could, but not Mexico (1).
With a win, the Eastern Europeans would certainly be in the next round, even a bankruptcy could be enough if it is not too high. Poland should lose a two-goal difference in a draw in the parallel game and would still be through. If Mexico beat Saudi Arabia, a goal difference would be decisive if Poland lost. The Eastern Europeans are in good shape with 2-0 goals so far, while Mexico (0-2) do not seem to have a good hand.
Argentina has progression in his own hands despite the sensational defeat against Saudi Arabia (1: 2). The team with superstar Lionel Messi is second in the group after their second group game against Mexico (2-0) and will certainly be in the top 16 if they win against Poland.
A draw depends on the result of the game between Saudi Arabia and Mexico. If the Gulf state wins, Argentina would be out, as would a Mexican win by four goals. If the Central Americans win by three goals, an Argentina draw would depend on the number of goals scored, as both teams would then have a goal difference of +1. If this were exactly the same after the third game, Argentina would be through due to the direct comparison.
Saudi Arabia as they are currently third in the group, a win against Mexico would definitely go further, as Poland and Argentina take points away from each other in the parallel game. In the event of a draw, Argentina are unlikely to score as the South Americans are level on points and have the better goal difference. If Saudi Arabia loses, the tournament is over for them.
Mexico meanwhile, before his third game, his back is against the wall. It is already clear that the Central Americans have to win against Saudi Arabia. If Argentina succeeds and loses against Poland, Mexico would be through. If Argentina score a point, Mexico would have to win by four goals to overtake Messi and company. In the event of a win by three goals, it would then depend on the number of goals scored. Mexico are yet to score in Qatar, while Argentina have already scored three goals. If both teams are equal on points and goals, Argentina would be through due to the direct comparison.
Even with a Polish defeat and their own win against Saudi Arabia, Mexico could advance to the next round. A major victory for the Central Americans would be a prerequisite for this – or a clear bankruptcy for Poland. The two teams are currently separated by three points and four goals.