Qatar 2022, Germany: now you have to beat Spain to go through

While it is true that every game is a final, especially in such a short competition, for Germany it is now a little more so. In group E, the hierarchies seemed rather clear on paper: on the one hand, the Germans and Spain, who were largely favored to access the round of 16, on the other, Japan and Costa Rica, looking for a memorable feat. And the latter scenario can no longer be ruled out, after the success of the Asian national team against Flick’s team. An even more searing misstep than in 2018, when Germany collapsed against Mexico and were eliminated for the first time in the group stage. The specter of such a premature exclusion is therefore very concrete, more so than in Argentina. In fact, in group C the draw between Mexico and Poland gave more balance to the rankings and the paradox concerns Saudi Arabia.

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The basic concept is that Germany’s qualifying path would be greatly compromised without winning against Spain, because at that point a series of combinations would have to occur which would also concern separate classifications and goal differences, assuming that Japan does not score points against Costa Rica. A national team that doesn’t seem to offer much resistance, as seen in the vertical collapse against Spain. Argentina, on the other hand, can also add four points in the next two matches, finishing the group as in 2018, but should hope that Saudi Arabia loses both against Mexico and against Poland: an eventuality that before the World Cup would have been considered rather probable, while now it is no longer so obvious. Speeches that would be canceled if Albiceleste won the two remaining games, against opponents who are within reach for one of the favorites of the entire tournament. In short, for all intents and purposes we are already at the last call for Germany, or almost.