If you do your best, you will always find a bright spot in the world marked by oppression and war. You can, as psychologist Steven Pinker in NRC explained, choose the long-term perspective and then you will definitely see progress. Eunuchs are no longer en vogue in 2022. You can also, as former Australian foreign minister Gareth Evans suggested in a lecture in The Hague, look for hope in Martin Luther King. The arc of the moral universe eventually bends toward justice, King said — albeit a long arc.
Everyday politics has been no place to fuel optimism in recent years. Ukraine, Myanmar, Tigray, Yemen, not to mention the storming of the Capitol.
But suddenly there were Congressional elections. The Republican candidates “appointed” by Donald Trump disappointed. Women protested the curtailment of abortion. Turnout was high, including among younger voters. In an inflation-ridden country, Joe Biden’s warning that democracy was at stake struck a chord.
Europe breathed a sigh of relief. Trumpism has damaged, but not eroded, American democracy. The US remains an eminent member of the Democratic family for the time being; Europe is not alone.
Joe Biden, the man of the cultured older gentlemen’s swagger, with his cool aviator glasses, may fall down a plane staircase, he kept the fortress. He escaped the historic trend of Congressional elections ending in drama for the president’s party. He is now considering a second term.
But the Democrats did have to give up ground, it seems. Relations in the Senate may remain uncertain until Sinterklaas, but a Republican majority is emerging in the House of Representatives. Biden’s loss had the semblance of a victory as he was predicted to see a devastating defeat, Europe was relieved as analysts had sketched a Trumpian future.
Republicans have promised to do everything they can to make life miserable for Biden. Can he have that? He must keep the Western alliance against Putin together and also has his hands full confronting China. It is also conceivable, suggested Michael Hirsch in Foreign Policythat the Republicans argue among themselves so much that it does not come to effective obstruction.
Good news for Europe is that the chances of a Trump comeback – who sees the EU as an economic enemy rather than a traditional friend – have diminished. But it is not certain whether his magic has worked. And then again. The Republicans could then run in 2024 with this week’s winner in Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis. DeSantis is known as Trumpist, a clever Trumpist.
He is the man who had immigrants from Texas delivered to wealthy Martha’s Vineyard to denounce immigration policy. He condemned Putin’s war, but recently sided with Elon Musk when he called on Kiev for negotiations, wrote The Washington Post in a DeSantis ‘foreign profile’. As a Florida man, he will have a great eye for Central America. He is not a climate denier, but he fought the rising water with construction projects, not with reduction of emissions. You can already picture the squabbling on the Washington-Brussels line.
Europe was forced to ride the waves of an American election again this week. American politics simply has a major influence on Europe, and Putin’s war has made everyone aware that Europe is doomed to co-operate with Washington. This week’s bipartisan view – democracy is alive, but Trumpism is not dead – should be an incentive for Europe to find the path to greater independence. Without surrendering to wild dreams of autonomy, but also without blind faith in the US. You can hope Joe stays for a while, you can’t gamble on it.
Geopolitics editor Michel Kerres writes here every other week about the tilting world order.
A version of this article also appeared in
the newspaper of November 11, 2022