The contrast is enormous: on the one hand, the protests that have plagued everything since mid-September Iranwith thousands of people, men and women together, facing the policemanwhich shoots with live fire and tear gas against some fed up and uplifted youngsters.
On the other hand, last Friday, in Tehrantens of thousands on the street, with men separated from women—all covered in the hijab regulations—, Iranian flags in the air and an official atmosphere. ‘Down with the US, said the signs and posters at the demonstration. Behind them, members of the Iranian government, sympathizers. The Islamic Republic celebrated, as a show of strength in the face of the protests, the forty-third anniversary of the seizure of the United States embassy in Tehran during the Islamic Revolution of 1979.
Like 43 years ago, the Persian country lives mired in protests that run throughout its territory. That wave, the twentieth centurytriumphed: from her was born the Islamic Republic of the ayatollahs, who established their regime of clerics against which thousands of young Iranians are now fighting. “Iran was liberated 43 years ago and does not want to go back to yoke of USA. We will no longer be milking cows,” said Iranian President Ebrahim Raisí. The Iranian government blames the US – already Israel- of the current protests. The parallels, however, between 1979 and 2022 are few.
“Of course, the current protests could be the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic –write Cornelius Abebahrexpert member of the thinktank international Carnegie-. But for this to happen, it would be necessary not only for the demonstrations to survive the brutality increasing, but rather become a organized movement around a program that goes beyond the slogan ‘death to the dictator’ and that it has leadership structures”.
“While the Islamic revolutionaries of 1979 could lean on their network of mosques and clerics within the country, there is nothing like it today that can help channel and direct Protestants,” Abebahr said.
A growing crackdown
Opposite, in addition, the protesters have a government willing to do anything to survive. And with experience in it: in its 43-year history, the Islamic Republic has already successfully suppressed large waves of protest in 1999, 2009, 2017 and 2019. The current one, however, is much more transversal and massive than all of the above.
And the figures since the death in mid-September of the young Mahsa Amini at the hands of the morality police are increasing exponentially. Since then, according to independent counts -the authorities do not count the deaths-, about 300 protesters have died at the hands of police brutality and basijsthe paramilitary body responsible for suppressing the protests. Of the dead, a minimum of 47 are minorsaccording to HRANA news agency, created by pro-protest activists. there would be more than 14,000 detainees and hundreds of disappeared.
not one step back
“With his apparent disdain for human lifethe Iranian regime has made it clear that it is not willing to carry out any kind of reform or concede to the people’s demands“explains Abebahr. “Furthermore, those responsible for the brutal police repression have their backs against the wall because they know that as the deaths mount, their only way to stay on their feet is to defeat the protesters.”
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This is the lesson that authoritarian regimes around the world – from China until Syria, Venezuela and Iran itself – drew from the fall of the Soviet Union, which lost the desire to kill to survive with the liberalization and opening of its last leader, Mikhail Gorbachev. The USSR It would end up falling apart in 1991.
“Encouraging as the images of the persistent protests in Iran -considers Abebahr-, it seems that the way to reach the realization of the democratic dreams and the hopes of the current generation of young Persians is still very long”.