Warning: this piece contains numbers. They are needed to explain that the Netherlands repells. Or apples, if you will. And why Google is fed up with that.
According to research agency Telecompaper, 60 percent of Dutch young people use an iPhone. In 2018 that was still 50 percent. I just did n=1 research: in my daughter’s class 18 out of 30 children have an iPhone. That’s 60 percent, they learned in math.
And if they also paid attention to chapter 12 (probability), then they know: more than three quarters of them remain trapped for life in the golden Apple cage of App Store, AirPods, Apple Watch and perhaps a apple glasses. Chained to the iCloud.
Why are young people more likely to choose iPhones than Android devices – when they are just as good and usually cheaper? According to lead researcher Ed Achterberg of Telecompaper, it is a matter of status: wanting to belong. “I was once president of a hockey club and 80 percent of the members there had an iPhone.” So it could be worse.
But there is a more important reason: many iPhones owned by young people are transmitters or refurbished appliances – the as-good-as-new category. Achterberg: “iPhones stay in use longer than Android phones, because the software is supported longer.”
Sales of new phones are falling hard by inflation and other economic malaise. However, the refurbished market is growing worldwide by 10 to 15 percent per year. 400,000 refurbished iPhones are sold annually in the Netherlands, estimates ‘refurbished’ supplier Forza.
As long as almost every iPhone gets a second or third life, Apple will quietly expand. According to Telecompaper, one in five Dutch iPhone users has a device of six years or older. Apple doesn’t care: they’re all customers who can purchase Apple services and accessories and eventually upgrade to new iPhones.
Expensive devices, poor offer
If you look at that new offer, then poverty is the trump card in Dutch telephone shops. The choice is between Apple or Samsung – there is hardly any competition. For a moment, Huawei seemed to conquer the world. But those phones are no longer allowed to use Google software and fast chips due to American sanctions – so no chance.
The other Chinese manufacturers are suffering from the lockdowns and disappointing sales in their home countries. they step in the Netherlands out of the market. LG stopped last year all the way with smartphones, Sony’s phones do too not really more with you.
What remains has an Apple or Samsung logo. Certainly the devices in the premium (above 400 euros) or ultra-premium segment, above 1,000 euros. That’s where, you guessed it, Apple sells the most.
Android strategy falters
For the first time since Steve Jobs showed the iPhone to the public in 2007, Apple’s iOS operating system in the US is again bigger than Android. Globally, iOS market share grew from 20 percent to . in three years 28 percent.
The Android strategy is faltering. Google introduced that operating system to guarantee mobile coverage for its advertising network: a free operating system full of Google apps, to be used by all manufacturers. With only Samsung as a major Android provider, the flush in western markets is very thin.
Another problem: Google pays Samsung and Apple billions of dollars a year for a place as the default search engine on phones. With this, Google buys reach in the mobile advertising market, but the company may also be breaking American limits competition rules. A third threat is Amazon, that snatched market share in advertising – but that aside.
Obsidian is the new black
Google wanted more control over the smartphone market and has therefore been developing its own phone, the Pixel, since 2016. After a difficult start, it is now a full-fledged iPhone competitor. The Pixel has been officially available in the Netherlands since this month. The Pixel 7 comes in two flavors (regular and “Pro”) and three colors, including the mysterious obsidian. “I had to google what that means, but it’s just black,” says Nanda Ramachandran. He is responsible for Google’s telephone division and was in the Netherlands last month to introduce the device. His job is to make the Pixel a within a few years double digit market share – 10 percent or more. A challenge, because the first generations of Pixel beat don’t mind. Things have gotten better since the Pixel 6.
Conquer the smartphone market for a while with your own phone, Microsoft and Amazon not. Google has the reputation to – if things go wrong – to pull the plug on projects. Will that also happen with the Pixel, if it fails to become profitable in a few years?
“No,” says Ramachandran. “We have invested billions in developing our own telephone chip. Google will continue to make Pixels and Pixel accessories in the long run.” Google makes headphones, tablets, watches, speakers and doorbells, as a parallel universe next to all Apple gadgets.
To lure iPhone users away from Apple, there’s a hefty price difference: the Pixel 7 Pro costs 899 euros, the iPhone 14 Pro Max 1,479 euros. Both devices have 128 GB of memory, a 6.7-inch screen and a excellent camera. In practice, it is easier to move within the Android system than to move from iOS to Android. So the Pixel will also cannibalize other Android brands, such as Samsung.
The innovations of the Pixel are in software and ‘ML’ – machine learning. That is Google’s for artificial intelligence. Such as Photo Unblur: making photos sharper afterwards. That also works with old snapshots, but don’t expect miracles.
A few attractive Pixel features do not yet work in the Netherlands, such as the free VPN connection for secure internet and transcription of recorded conversations (in English only). You could also skip annoying phone menus with the Pixel (‘press 4 for a repeat prescription’), but that doesn’t work in the Netherlands either.
So please be patient. Survival in the smartphone market is a long-term issue anyway. In my view, the most important feature of the Pixel is that Google five years guarantees security updates and three years new android upgrades. That promise is approaching it generous update policy of the iPhone: operating system iOS16 still works on devices from 2017, iOS15 on phones from 2015.
Respect old devices, that’s the secret of Apple’s second youth.