Experts insist on rooting out fossil fuels before 2050 to avoid exceeding 1.5ºC of warming
The consumption of fossil fuels continues to be the majority in the entire planet compared to other energy sources. Butwhat time limit do we have left to stop the exploitation of coal and oil? The answer is not simple, but it is urgent to have it. Hence, a group of researchers has decided to estimate for the first time the margin of use of fossil fuels that we have left to avoid planetary collapse. And it’s not too much.
According to the researchers, to avoid climate disaster -that is, temperatures rising by more than 1.5ºC compared to the pre-industrial period- we should forget about exploiting at least 60% of the oil and gas and up to 90% of the remaining coal on the planet until 2050.
Aware of the challenge that this entails, the researchers insist that it is necessary to establish measures to reduce dependence on coal and oil from now on. 2022 should be the year of inflection, given that from this moment on, economic dependence should decrease at a rate of 3% per year.
Otherwise, the remaining 0.3ºC for global temperatures to be 1.5ºC above the industrial period will be reached before humanity can adapt even to the new climatic dynamics. But the risk is even greater, given that global thermometers will not stop there and will continue to rise until they reach temperatures that are totally unaffordable for life.
Achieving it is not an easy task, and this is reflected by the researchers themselves in this article that has just been published in the journal Nature. As they say, there are countries like The United States or Russia that house half of the world’s coal. To achieve the proposed objectives, these two great powers would have to give up extracting 97% of their coal.
For its part, the oil-producing states – the majority in the Middle East – have to avoid extracting two-thirds of their reserves until 2050. Similarly, most of Canada’s oil sands should not be burned anymore. Nor should the fossil fuel that sleeps under the Arctic be exploited anymore.
A sudden change in the economic model is needed
The researchers are aware that the only way to meet their estimates is by making a sudden change in the economic model at a planetary level. A task that, without a doubt, will find obstacles in its way, especially in countries highly dependent on fossil fuels, such as Iraq or Angola. For these countries, it is recommended that external aid be provided to help them carry out a just energy transition and in which they can diversify their economy.
These estimates, as the researchers argue, may even be unambitious and fail on their own to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.. For this reason, they insist that there is a possibility that the effort to avoid climate chaos should be much greater. In other words, the oil and coal available for the next few years would be much less.
Likewise, the researchers specify that the energy transformation necessary to carry out this transition will require a series of political actions aimed at reducing the consumption of fossil fuels. Among them, the researchers highlight a possible ban on gasoline cars or the promotion of renewables. Policy measures should even target production itself, which may include restrictions on new extraction licences.
Finally, the researchers emphasize the importance of strengthen international alliances. And it is that practice has shown that two countries can better manage their oil consumption and extraction together. It is the example of the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, formed by Denmark and Costa Rica, which has achieved enough power to urge other countries to stop investments in new oil and gas projects.
“It is possible to eliminate the global production of fossil fuels at the rate we suggest & rdquor ;, the scientists emphasize in a press release. However, they emphasize, the implementation “of some of the measures described & rdquor ; will depend on it.
Reference study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03821-8
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