By Hildburg Bruns and Mary-Lou Künzel
For 18 years, Berlin has known only one direction – upwards! The latest population forecast says: in just eight years, 2030, the German capital could break the 4 million mark again. BIG, BIG City as it was in 1925!
A glimpse into the further future: the city development senate has worked out three variants for the year 2040 in cooperation with statisticians.
► 3,786,000 – lower variant with just 10,000 more inhabitants.
► 3,963,000 – medium variant with plus 187,000 Berliners.
► 4,128,000 – upper variant with plus 352,000 capitals.
Law trainee Elisa R. (26) from Moabit: “Last year I moved to Berlin for my studies. I can’t imagine moving away from here, but also because I’ve built my life here with my friends and family. Berlin offers everything except cheap housing. Berlin will probably stay” Photo: Christian Lohse
From the point of view of the experts, the most likely development is the middle variant. In the next few weeks, it will be broken down into the districts and updated with the plans for new housing, daycare centers, schools, transport routes and social facilities.
Pedagogue Maria Bernadete (54) from Alt-Glienicke: “I moved from Brazil to Berlin 20 years ago. Back then I came for love, but you can also find better work here. What I love most about Berlin is the security that you have due to the rules that apply here. This makes everything work. You feel free here” Photo: Christian Lohse
The year with the greatest population increase is 2022 – because of the 65,000 Ukrainians who are in Berlin after fleeing Putin’s war of aggression. It is expected that 66 percent of them will stay in the long term.
In the next two decades, the population will probably increase by a total of 5 percent. “Berlin remains a growing city,” says Urban Development Senator Andreas Geisel (56, SPD). “About half of the increase will occur in the next four years. The pressure on the housing market will not decrease.”
Student Sophia A. (19) from Amsterdam: “I moved here because of my dance studies. It will probably last a year, but I wish I could live here longer. I find the people, the history, the attitude to life in Berlin much more progressive and so varied. Berlin is individual” Photo: Christian Lohse
It remains exciting where the plus comes from.
economic boom: In the past and in the future there is always reason for more residents. Between 2013 and 2013, the number of employees in Berlin rose twice as fast as anywhere else in Germany. At the same time, the number of unemployed fell from 202,000 to 179,000.
Pensioner André Janke (74) from Köpenick: “I am originally from East Berlin and would like to live here in the future. Of course there are also moments when you get angry that Berlin is dirty and nobody cares that Berlin is becoming more and more degenerate. Despite everything, the city has made good progress since reunification.” Photo: Christian Lohse
workers: Due to the lack of skilled workers, Berlin remains attractive for the immigration of foreigners. Immigration from EU countries has been declining since 2018, and workers are now coming from South Asia (India). Fewer trainees and students from Germany have been registered since 2016 – the experts suspect this is because of the difficult housing situation. As a result, the city will lose around 250,000 Berliners to the surrounding area by 2040.
Artist Callum Norris (25) from Friedrichshain: “I moved to Berlin because of professional opportunities. As a drag queen, you don’t have as many opportunities in the country as you do here. Of course you also hear some homophobic statements, but the attitude of the people is less conservative than in Bielefeld.” Photo: Christian Lohse
The bottom line is that immigration from abroad will increase from the current 99,000 to 113,000 people/year. Since significantly fewer people are migrating, a total of 400,000 more newcomers with foreign passports will be living in the city in 2040.
6.3 percent more children by 2040
In 2040, the average Berliner will be 43.2 years old (now 42.9).
The number of children and young people increased by 6.3 percent (+39,000). The group of employable Berliners (18-65 years) increases by 69,000.
There is a boom among seniors: Plus 11% (80,000), with an additional 8,000 very old people. “We will have to take care of the care more than before,” said Mayor Klaus Lederer (48, left).
Of the three forecasts (chart below), the middle one (yellow) is considered the most likely.
By 2025 there will be more births than deaths, then the trend will reverse.
In 1925 Berlin already had 4 million inhabitants
Over the centuries, Berlin has become the largest German metropolis.
1200: Place of foundation Berlin-Cölln with approx. 2400 residents
1871: New imperial capital with 824,484 inhabitants
1920: The formation of Greater Berlin doubled the number of inhabitants from 1.9 million to 3,879,409 inhabitants
1925: The 4 million mark was broken for the first time, at that time exactly 4,024,165 inhabitants
In that year, Hindenburg became President of the Reich, Kafka’s novel “The Trial” and Hitler’s “Mein Kampf” were published, Germany without the Saarland had 62.5 million inhabitants (census), Ilse and Karl were the most popular first names
[1945:After the end of the war, 2,807,405 residents were registered
1975: The island of West Berlin shrank below the 2 million mark, East Berlin grew slightly to 1.1 million inhabitants due to influx from the GDR
1990: Berlin is reunited with 3,433,695 million inhabitants
2000: Low in the post-reunification period with 3.331 million inhabitants
Since 2004: rising
2020: Growth falters due to Corona
2021: Since the second half of the year it has increased again to currently 3,775,000