Together, the right-wing coalition gets more than 44 percent of the vote, but that percentage is enough for a majority in both houses of the Italian parliament. This is because Italy has a mixed electoral system, in which about one third of the seats are distributed per majority system (first past the postprinciple) and the rest through a proportional system.
Ironically, it is precisely the center-left Partito Democratico that introduced the complicated electoral system in 2017, with a view to the then emerging Five Star Movement, which it hoped to contain. Now its own electoral law is turning against the PD, and that is not the only thing that the party can blame after the historically poor election result (19 percent for the party, 26 percent for the left bloc).
But besides the success of the right and the failure of the left, the Italian election results tell at least two other stories: that of a deep division between the North and the South, and of an unprecedented low turnout (63.9 percent), especially in the South. -Italy.
Because the Five Star Movement, which won the previous elections in 2018 with 32 percent, now didn’t even get half that percentage at the national level (15), but still scored well in the south. Where Fratelli d’Italia became the largest in by far the most electoral colleges in northern Italy, south of Rome almost everywhere was the populist Five Star Movement.
That fact does not automatically translate into a large number of seats for the anti-establishment party in the majority system, because they entered the elections without allies: So Five Star can be the largest party in an electoral college, but still lose out to the combined right-wing bloc of Fratelli d’Italia, Lega and Forza Italia.
Low turnout
Turnout in Italy has traditionally been high: until 2008, it never fell below 80 percent. But for the past fourteen years, attendance has been on a nosedive that still doesn’t seem to end. In the 2018 elections, 73 percent was a record low, now there are another 9 percentage points from it to 63.9 percent. It did not help that the weather was particularly bad on Sunday in large parts of southern Italy, where the turnout is already lower than in the north.
That means that the party of the non-voters became by far the largest. Of the 51 million Italians who were eligible to vote, about 18.5 million stayed at home. In comparison, winner Fratelli d’Italia probably got around 8.5 million votes, the right-wing bloc together about 14.3 million votes.
Formation
President Sergio Mattarella is expected to instruct Giorgia Meloni to seek a parliamentary majority as the basis for a government this week, after he first holds exploratory talks with all party leaders. “This is a starting point,” Meloni responded to the provisional result on Sunday night. “From tomorrow we have to prove our worth. Our big goal is to make the Italians proud of their Italianness again.’
The first hurdle for her to do so is the cabinet formation, which is not getting any easier due to the painful loss of allies Matteo Salvini (the Lega went from 17 to 9 percent) and Silvio Berlusconi (Forza Italia from 14 to 8 percent).
After all, Meloni’s right-wing allies are also her electoral competitors, who lost many votes precisely by co-governing the previous unity cabinet of Mario Draghi. The urge to distinguish itself from Meloni probably won’t last long to gain something back from that. Forming a right-wing government will still succeed, but the question is how long the honeymoon will last after that.