After two years of legislature, packed with the historic event that has been the coronavirus pandemic and unexpected events such as the eruption of the La Palma volcano, the withdrawal from Afghanistan or now the tension with Russia over Ukraine, the Government has finally managed to have a planning about the calendar for the coming months. Until now, the efforts against the successive waves of contagion have been combined with the bellows for greater legislative production, which combines economic recovery with a social agenda, but the first symptoms of definitive control of the health crisis have allowed Moncloa Minimally organizing your next moves politicians. Always with all caution.
According to sources close to Pedro Sánchez to this newspaper, between now and the summer the Executive will convene the dialogue table with the Generalitat and the debate on the state of the nation will be held in Congress. Two pending commitments that, according to government sources, will fit into the agenda based on the electoral appointments for this first half of the year: the elections in Castilla y León on February 13 and the advance of the elections in Andalusiaexpected for early June.
Until the end of the semester, the Government’s immediate concern is to approve this coming Thursday, February 3, the labor reform. All efforts are now concentrated on this point. The forecast is to validate the decree by a handful of votes (even by just one), but preserving without changes the agreement with employers and unions. The question is whether the bipartite will be able to convince ERC and PNV, although it seems very difficult for now. The Council of Ministers will also approve the housing law on Tuesday, despite the Strong objections from the General Council of the Judiciaryalso without any modification, as agreed with United We Can.
The forecast is to validate the labor reform decree by a handful of votes, but preserving the agreement with employers and unions unchanged
Once the “very important” process of the labor reform, promised to Brussels, has been completed, all the focus will be on the elections in Castilla y León. The objective of the PSOE, as ratified in Ferraz and in the regional federation, is to ensure that the sum of PP and Vox does not occur. Although the prediction of the CIS has pointed out that they might not be enough to govern, the Moncloa polls certify it. Thus the campaign will focus on avoiding itwith the party united around the candidate, Luis Tudanca, and dedicated to achieve part of the Citizens vote.
After the polls, Sánchez will summon the presidents in La Palmaand then the meeting with the Government and the debate of the nationall before the Andalusians
Optimism about a possible participation of Aragonès
After 13-F, the Government will convene the Conference of Presidents on the Canary Island of La Palma, which for the first time is believed that the ‘president’ of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès, could attend. The idea is that it be in the following weeks, but it could be modified if Castilla y León does not show a clear majority and the investiture is eternalized.
The Executive’s plan is to set a date for the dialogue table after the elections and the Conference of Presidents. Here, according to sources close to Sánchez, there is the possibility that it is both before and after Easter (this year, in mid-April). And the same anticipation exists with the debate on the state of the nation. In any case, both calls are planned for the spring.
The dialogue table and the debate of the nation would be held before or after Holy Week, according to the calculations of the Moncloa, always with all the precautions
In the event that the ERC finally does not vote on the labor reform, which is most likely today, the dialogue table would serve to redirect the relationship with a key partner for governance. Although the truth is that in the Government and in Ferraz they do not seem to exhibit any fear of deterioration of dialogue with the Republicans. On the contrary, they see with great optimism a possible participation of Aragonès in the La Palma event, because Catalonia, they emphasize, has left progressively incorporating institutional forums and even a representative of the Government, the ‘consellera’ of the Presidency, Laura Vilagrà, participated in November at the preparatory meeting of the Conference of Presidents.
Since the end of 2021, the ‘president’ had been urging Sánchez to convene the forum between governments, but Sánchez replied that it was not his priority, because the institutions had to focus on the “urgent”, on overcoming the pandemic , in the middle of the sixth wave, and in the economic recovery. By “common sense”, he argued. He did he promised that he would have a date. Moreover, “throughout this year”, there will be “more than one meeting“, as the president promised. ERC lowered the piston and admitted the delay – also forced by the elections in Castilla y León – and considered it more important to reach agreements on content than the date.
Yesterday Aznar said of Casado that he was a weak leader, without a project and that he put his personal interests before those of the citizens.
Married calls the elections to cover his weakness.
Manueco to cover his corruption.
? @Adrilastra#ChangeAndHope pic.twitter.com/rgjYXvPaci
— PSOE (@PSOE) January 30, 2022
Complicated path for Swords
Parallel to the dialogue table, conceived to find a political solution to the Catalan conflict, a meeting of the Generalitat-State bilateral commission, where purely “statutory” issues will be addressed, as the Government labels them, from infrastructures to scholarships. For ERC, it is essential to maintain its dialogue with the Government on various flanks. It is his strategic bet, hard fought and questioned by Junts.
In the Government and in the PSOE there is no fear of a break with ERC even if they finally voted against the labor reform
The end of this six-month cycle will occur with the advancement of the Andalusian elections, which could be in early June, according to Moncloa’s calculations. The option that Juanma Moreno called quickly, after 13-F, to ride the wave of a good result for Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, has been losing strength because it would not be possible to take out the ballot boxes before Easter, for a matter of legal deadlines, since between the call and the polls 54 days have to pass. The most likely optionthen, is the first fortnight of Junebefore the children finish school and some families already move to their summer resort.
In Moncloa there is concern about the result of the Andalusians, despite the replacement of Juan Espadas by Susana Díaz. little known, without the real support of the critical sector (the susanistas), the former mayor of Seville is facing a president of the PP who has established himself in a very short time with a moderate spirit. Despite this concern, his analysis is that Andalusia You do not have to vote the same in general as in regional since, unlike Juanma Moreno, Pablo Casado has not been consolidated. Sánchez and the leadership of Ferraz are turning to boost Swords. Andalusia is the cornerstone to underpin the revalidation of the president in Moncloa.
The constant friction with United We Can, which will increase as the cycle accelerates, does not cause great concern in Moncloa, for now, and they claim to be aware of Díaz’s steps
In all this planning, the socialist part of the Executive also sees its relationship with United We Can be much more pacified, despite the fact that in recent months there have also been high-profile controversies such as the macro-farms or the ‘Not to the war‘, which have not finished turning off. The beginning of the electoral cycle that begins with Castilla y León and that will culminate with the general elections of December 2023 or January 2024 causes a constant tension with partners.
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But this does not cause great concern in Moncloa, where they say they are absolutely aware of all the steps taken by the second vice president, Yolanda Díaz. They even claim to understand the purple campaign against possible changes in the housing law, which are not going to happen, because Ione Belarra, in addition to being Minister of Social Rights, is the leader of Podemos and that forces her to maintain a combative speech addressed to their voters or social organizations in their orbit.