A negotiated peace was never very likely, but Russia is working hard to permanently sideline itself. As far as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is concerned, that possibility is now further away than ever. “How do we see the end of the war? Earlier we said: peace, now we say: victory,” he said recently at the Ukrainian Independence Day celebrations in Kiev. This week followed a long-awaited offensive in the area around the southern city of Kherson, occupied by Russia. There is not much information. Kiev has called for radio silence: do not help the enemy. But it is clear that there is a broad front trying to put pressure on the Russians. Ukraine wants to create new ‘facts on the ground’ before autumn sets in, before the battlefield turns into a quagmire.
Also read: Should Kherson be recaptured from the Russians, then that will be a big shock to the Kremlin
The offensive is another example of the unprecedented courage of the Ukrainians, often against the rocks. The Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have the volume of tanks, howitzers or men needed to push the larger Russian military force decisively on the defensive. Kiev has never been secretive about that, but is now going on the attack. Not just like that: for weeks, smaller, targeted attacks have been carried out on Russian ammunition depots, communication lines and command centers. In Crimea, annexed by Moscow, the tourist season was disrupted by mysterious and less mysterious explosions, including at Russian air bases. The Ukrainian army is not optimally equipped, so it has to be smart. The weapons supplied by the West, such as the mobile missile launch system HIMARS (range: 80 kilometers), undeniably help in this regard.
Emmanuel Macron does want to continue talks with Moscow, the French president said on Thursday. “Who wants Turkey to be the only power in the world that keeps talking to Russia?” Macron said French support for Ukraine will continue unabated, also in the longer term, but that every opportunity to de-escalate, however hopeless, should be seized. The French head of state is right, but it is also quite understandable that Zelensky no longer sees much in talking further: Russian President Vladimir Putin has completely turned his back on international law and civilization.
The list of good reasons to end the occupation quickly is long and growing. Executions of gagged citizens; rocket attacks on civilian targets; the deliberate sowing of terror; the cynical game surrounding grain exports. A report from Human Rights Watch released this week contains dozens of testimonies about mass deportations. Parents are being pressured to send their children to Russian schools. Ukrainian children are brainwashed in training camps – and given shooting lessons. Becoming orphans in Russia put up for adoption.
There is also a threat of a nuclear disaster. In March, Russia captured the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine, literally playing with fire. The complex has since been militarized. Equipment is placed dangerously close to reactors. Last week the power grid was disconnected, and diesel generators had to be used temporarily to keep pumping the cooling water. The staff is mistreated or imprisoned. After difficult negotiations, a group of experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was allowed to visit the site this week, but Russia was intimidating, with additional shelling in the area.
Also read: Concerns about the safety of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant
Whether the Ukrainian offensive will succeed is difficult to say. The Kremlin mounted an information campaign this week that dismissed the offensive as a total failure. As is often the case with Russian propaganda, there is probably more truth in the reverse. The offensive immediately raises new questions. Zelensky not only says that the time for talking is over, but also that by the liberation of occupied territories he really means all areas. Not only the areas occupied since February, but also the Crimea and the Donbas, regions where Russia has held sway for some time (since 2014). Zelensky has never spoken out so explicitly about this and sooner or later the US and the EU will have to make clear whether they see it that way. Will the West really go all the way with arms supplies, until the last piece of Crimea has been recaptured? A diabolical dilemma, in view of the skyrocketing inflation and energy prices, but also one that you hope will be on the table as soon as possible. Ukraine’s rapid advance would be great news.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of September 3, 2022