On Tuesday, European energy ministers will try to reach a political agreement on the gas reduction. This is necessary to be prepared for the realistic scenario that Russia will stop gas exports to Europe in the short term. Gazprom announced Monday that it would reduce supplies via the Nord Stream pipeline by up to 20 percent.
A divided EU without a gas emergency plan plays into Moscow’s hands, EU diplomats emphasize. An embarrassment that must be avoided. “There is no plan B,” said one of them.
Last week, EU countries immediately launched an attack on the Commission’s proposal that provides for a gas-saving contract for all EU countries of 15 percent, or 45 billion cubic meters of gas. If this is not possible on a voluntary basis, the Commission wants to make the gas reduction binding. It would determine when it is time for this alarm phase. The austerity law should be in effect for two years because the winter of 2023-2024 could get even more difficult. For the coming winter, the gas stocks are reasonably up to standard, but largely filled with Russian gas. Next year it is expected that there will be no more or much less.
Spain and Portugal started the resistance: both countries hardly use Russian gas. Upstairs, they are poorly connected to the rest of Europe in terms of energy, so that any saved gas (which they source from Africa) cannot easily be transferred to countries that are heavily dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Poland, Hungary and Slovenia.
Spanish and Portuguese diplomats also showed some gloating in recent days. They recalled the euro crisis when their requests for financial aid initially met resistance from Germany and The Hague, who blamed their financial mismanagement. Now Madrid and Lisbon mainly accuse Germany of energy mismanagement by consuming cheap Russian gas for decades.
Misery
Consultations between EU ambassadors on Monday showed that the Baltic states also want an exception to the 15 percent target because their energy network is linked to the Russian one. In addition, Malta, Cyprus and Ireland again demanded a softer approach because as islands they have little to share with the rest of Europe.
According to Commission figures, all exemption requests add up to approximately 15 billion cubic metres. The savings to be achieved would be just over 30 billion cubic metres. On this subject, the Commission said last week that this is not enough to get through the coming winter without major economic misery.
In its calculations, the Commission assumed that Gazprom would turn off its gas tap completely from 1 July. That is not yet the case, which gives some leeway.
The energy ministers are trying to determine the exact quota today. It is clear that they want to determine when the alarm phase is declared, which makes gas saving mandatory. Giving that power to the Commission is going too far for the EU countries.
Member States further limit the savings proposal to one year. It will be considered next summer whether an extension of the reduction obligation is necessary. EU countries are encouraged to invest quickly and extensively in sustainable energy as an alternative to Russian gas. Coal-fired power stations are also allowed to run faster, despite the extra CO2 emissions. In addition, where possible, Member States will keep nuclear power stations open longer in order to absorb energy shortages in the short term.
Minister Jetten (Climate and Energy) informed the House of Representatives on Monday that a political agreement between the member states is feasible on Tuesday. The technical details will then be worked out in the coming weeks, the bill must be introduced quickly. The Netherlands and Germany would have wanted a more ambitious saving than 15 percent.