Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov gave an interview to propaganda channel RT last week when asked how Moscow’s war in Ukraine should end. “Geographically,” RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonjan specified.
“The geography is different now,” Lavrov said with a straight face. “We are no longer just talking about Donetsk and Luhansk: it’s about the Kherson region, the Zaporizhzhya province and a whole host of other areas.”
That was remarkable. On February 24, the first day of the Russian invasion, Russian President Putin said that Moscow did not want to conquer Ukraine, but “denazify” – meaning Putin was referring to the overthrow of the Zelensky government. When the attack on Kiev had ended in an ignominious defeat, the Kremlin suddenly stated that the war was about the ‘liberation’ of the eastern Donbas. Now Lavrov, almost on the fly, formulated new war goals that amounted to the capture of about a quarter of the territory of Ukraine. “The process is taking place step by step, but inevitable,” Lavrov said. New Western arms deliveries – such as the HIMARS missile launch system, with an even greater range – will only fuel Russia’s hunger for land, according to the minister: “Then the geographical targets will move even further from the front line.”
It sounded threatening and that was the intention, says Russian political scientist Valeri Solovej. According to Solovej, the Kremlin would like to negotiate an honorable peace: no NATO membership for Ukraine and annexation of the territories conquered by Russia. However, now that the flow of Western weapons has brought a new balance to the battlefield, Kiev has little appetite for it. “Ukraine does not want to meet the Russian demands,” Solovej says. “So Moscow resorts to threats: if you don’t talk now, we’ll conquer even more land.”
Hardliners and Realists
After five months, the war in Ukraine has entered a crucial phase, Solovej says, but behind the high walls of the Kremlin there is confusion about the course to follow. A small but influential group of hardliners wants to continue the Russian offensive until the entire Black Sea coast and eastern Ukraine is conquered. On the other hand, a large majority of realists, both in the civil service and in the armed forces, believe that such a thing is no longer feasible. “Many soldiers think that the situation could develop unfavorably for Russia if the West continues to support Ukraine massively. In that case, there is even a risk of losing the newly conquered territories.”
Over the past three months, Russian forces have been slowly but surely gaining ground in the Donbas. The capture of the city of Lysychansk early this month marked Russia’s first ‘victory’ after the painful retreat from northern Ukraine: the capture of the entire Luhansk province. Now Moscow has its eye on the Donetsk province.
But is the Russian army still capable of that? According to the Ukrainian General Staff, nearly 40,000 Russian soldiers have been killed. CIA chief William Burns said this week at least 15,000 Russians were killed and 45,000 injured.
Mobilization
“Russia probably no longer has the military capacity to achieve its goals,” Canada’s Defense Ministry said on Thursday. According to former FSB officer Igor Girkin, the main Internet mouthpiece for Russian nationalists, more soldiers are killed or deserted than new recruits are pouring in. Russia cannot win the war with only professional soldiers, says Girkin: Russia must mobilize reservists and conscripts.
The plans for this, says Solovej, are ready. Last Friday, the Russian Duma was suddenly recalled from recess. Until the last moment, it was not clear what the parliamentarians should vote on, but according to Solovej’s sources, far-reaching proposals had been prepared, from the declaration of martial law in the Russian border regions to the declaration of (partial) mobilization.
Putin gave up at the last minute, Solovej says. The Russian parliament ultimately only voted on the promotion of the Russian Minister of Industry and Foreign Trade to Deputy Prime Minister.
Conditions at the front should force Moscow to make clear choices. Ukraine is preparing for a counter-offensive towards the southern city of Kherson. To cope with that, Putin must mobilize this summer, otherwise it will be too late. But Putin hesitates: Calling up reservists and conscripts could lead to domestic unrest. It is not the only decision that the Russian president is delaying. “Everyone who speaks to him says he has stopped making decisions,” Solovej says. “He has fallen into a kind of administrative inertia. He has all kinds of decisions prepared, but he does not make any decisions. That seems to have been going on for a month.”
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of July 23, 2022