The “Punisher”, “Dirty Harry”, the “Donald Trump of the East”. Those were the nicknames given to the president Rodrigo Duterte, the fierce populist who waged a bloody drug war in the Philippines. Elected in 2016, he stirred up the country’s international loyalties, shook up big business, and angered women’s groups and the Catholic Church.
And that was before missteps in handling the Covid-19 pandemic led to one of the highest case rates in Southeast Asia. The tens of thousands of deaths they had a ferocious impact and sank the economy. Yet Duterte remains popular with a broad base, made possible by the alliance that included his daughter, and which scored the biggest victory in four decades in the race to succeed him.
Inheritance
Duterte, 77, was limited by the constitution to one term, ending June 30, 2022. After considering various scenarios, he finally decided to retire from politics. He endorsed his daughter, the mayor of Davao City, Sarah Dutertewho ran for the vice presidency (which is elected separately) allied with former senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.., son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, who ruled for 21 years until he was deposed by the EDSA Revolution in 1986 and went into exile in Hawaii.
Surveys show that Marcos owes the Dutertes the wide margin of victory: He beat finalist Leni Robredo for the presidency by nearly 31 points in the May 9 election; but Sara Duterte won her internship for an even larger amount.
is that many approve Duterte’s economic management despite the fall of the last year: the president inherited a solid scheme from his predecessor, Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, and maintained growth above 6% in his first four years as, with low unemployment and poverty rates.
The Philippines also achieved its highest credit rating when tax reforms were implemented, following Aquino’s efforts to go after tax evaders, allowing a increase in infrastructure spending. But the gross domestic product plummeted 9.6% in 2020 and unemployment increased, especially in the Manila metropolitan area, where a third of the country’s economic activity is concentrated.
GDP grew again in 2021 as Covid restrictions eased, with 2022 forecast at 7.5%, among the fastest recoveries in Asia.
Climate
A series of arrests and crackdowns on the media in the weeks leading up to the presidential inauguration of Ferdinand Marcos Jr.., presaged a continued climate of intolerance towards dissent, along with a reduction in civil liberties, activists and human rights defenders warned.
In early June, the National Security Council ordered Internet service providers to will close a list of websites allegedly “supporting terrorists and terrorist organizations,” including independent media outlets such as local Bulatlat and Pinoy Weekly.
“The recent order to block websites shows the ease with which the government can silence dissent and critical reporting under the guise of enforcing laws and regulations,” said Jonathan de Santos, president of the National Union of Philippine Journalists.
“It is the latest blow from an administration that has been hostile to the press. But the press under Marcos Jr. will probably see the same hostility that we saw under Duterte, if not worse,” Santos added.
The blockade also reached the website of the National Federation of Amihan Peasant Women, a labor rights group that has been the target of relentless acts of political intimidation. “The new administration is already showing its disregard for human rights and freedom of the press. They continue to twist the laws for their benefit,” said Zenaida Soriano, president of the human rights group.
Soriano revealed that Amihan’s bank accounts have been frozen since last year due to alleged violations of terrorist financing rules. “You can’t expect anything good from a tandem Marcos, Jr. and Duterte. They are using the anti-terrorism law against citizens who rise up to defend their rights and their livelihood. This is the same legacy of their parents”, Soriano pointed out against the heirs of the autocrats.
On alert. Marcos Jr., son and namesake of former Philippine dictator, was sworn in as president last Thursday. And at a press conference, he refused to acknowledge the human rights atrocities that took place under his father, and partner Duterte. Critics point out that both the Marcos family and the Duterte family have stood out in the exploitation and manipulation of social networks to create an alternative information ecosystem.
Regine Cabato, the Manila correspondent for the Washington Post and a member of the Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines, noted that Marcos’ disinformation campaign “went on for decades, and was elaborate and financed with state money“.
“Somehow, the administration of the president Duterte saw a certain institutionalization of disinformation: giving propagandists positions in the government,” added Cabato.
“And the team of Marcos Jr. has almost perfected it. His campaign is more inventive and fast-paced than Duterte’s, with TikTok influencers and YouTube videos. An alternate universe of misinformation,” she concluded.
Marcos Jr, 64, has so far not provided many details about his policies, but he is expected to pursue the same approach as his predecessor Duterte, seeking a ruthless consolidation of power. “It is difficult to predict how the Marcos presidency will affect the economy because he has not yet presented a strategic plan to date,” said Jan Carlo Punongbayan, an analyst and professor of economics at the University of the Philippines.
“Right now, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is over 60%. Some analysts say we can grow our way out of current debt, but with the domestic economy still in a precarious state and the global economy heading into recession, grow to get out of debt could still be difficult to achieve,” Punongbayan concluded.
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