What does NRC think | It has to be done with less. The earth asks for it

In the United Nations’ climate reports it is almost a given these days: we have to get rid of the current limited paradigm of economic growth. Only in this way can animal species be preserved, so that the earth can be prevented from becoming exhausted. As long as growth remains the paradigm, humans will rapidly undermine the livelihoods of everything and everyone on earth.

Knowledge about the effects of overconsumption is now widely available. In less than three weeks, on July 28, the world will experience Earth Overshoot Day, the day in the year when humanity has used up what the globe has to offer on an annual basis. In the following months, humanity lives on the spur of the moment, to have consumed a total of the raw materials of 1.75 earth by the end of the year. For the record: that cannot go well and yet it has been happening for over 50 years. In 1971, for the first time, humanity consumed more than the Earth could supply.

So why is it not possible to actually adjust people’s behaviour? That theme was central to the brilliant film Don’t Look Up, in which the climate catastrophe has been replaced by an oncoming comet that threatens the earth (after all, who goes to the cinema to see a film about the climate). The message is as clear as it is worrying: people would rather look away than face disaster.

In one of the articles that the series ‘Less’ die NRC publishing this week, it addresses that inability. Humans appear to be ill-equipped for a threat that unfolds slowly, is complex and does not manifest itself as a clearly distinguishable adversary. If the required behavioral change does not yield any direct benefits, it will be difficult to get most citizens to join in on their own accord.

However, something drastic has to be done. Tech optimism seems like a painless way out. Innovations, from new forms of energy generation, the capture and storage of the surplus of carbon dioxide to artificial climate influencing are all possible. Or techniques and methods to achieve the same level of well-being with less and less raw materials and energy. Just as the medical world proves to be able to cure new diseases every time, humanity may also be able to solve part of the climate problems technologically.

But it would be naive to bet on that completely, for two reasons. Suppose we fail to find a solution in time, then it will be too late to actually turn the tide when we find out. And two: even if it is possible to stop using fossil fuels, for example, the CO₂emissions and to tap into alternative energy sources, we are still consuming too much. As long as humanity takes more away from the globe than that globe can regenerate, we are doomed to eventually lose.

In any case, it will therefore have to be less, at least for the countries that are now consuming more than their fair share. Moderation in the wealthy West can and should create room for countries that have so far lagged behind in prosperity. Only by offering them more space when it comes to CO₂emissions and consuming biocapacity they can pull their leg. Because up to now, the hard law has applied that economic growth is accompanied by more consumption and pollution.

Yet it is impossible to deny people in countries of much lower wealth the possibility of living the life that their counterparts in high-income countries have long been accustomed to. Until now, politics has boiled down to redistribution of wealth growth. How difficult it is to allocate a smaller burden on the environment and surroundings is apparent these days, among other things, from the nitrogen dossier in the Netherlands. Internationally, the challenge is even greater.

Policy is needed. And not only for 2030, 2040 or 2050, but also acutely. Citizens cannot be expected to completely change their behavior of their own accord. A government cannot leave the problems to the forces of the free market alone. And a redistribution of the pain can only be done through democratic means.

In the coming years, it will come down to adjusting the incentives in the system. Only in this way can the turn to less be used. Saying goodbye to the paradigm of economic growth can be a path that helps. Remarkable is that 132 countries already signed in 2019 under a UN report on biodiversity that advocated just that. The knowledge is there, the will is there. Now the measures to actually make the turn.