Just a year ago, the same uncertainty was felt in the PSOE and in the Executive. A broad remodeling in the Government and in the party was in sight, but the president kept his cards to himself, quietly moving his pieces and looking for the surprise effect. Now, after the disaster of the Andalusian elections on June 19, the socialist leadership and Moncloa suspect that Pedro Sánchez will make changes, but in the leader’s entourage they say they still have no information on whether there will be any, on their scope —that is, whether they will affect Ferraz, the Cabinet, the parliamentary group or all of them, and to what extent—and when they will be executed, whether this month or right after the summer holidays. It is precisely this sea of doubts that makes many cadres uneasy. And Sánchez, at the meeting of the federal executive this Monday, did not clarify anything, neither for better nor for worse. He moved his people to focus on what “important“what would they do”campaign” of the government measures and that they did not attend to “crap“. That is, at “speculations” —as defined by the management spokesman, Felipe Sicilia— on possible and future movements.
Positions have ostensibly migrated in recent weeks. Before the Andalusian regional elections, and in view of the poor result that was anticipated (and confirmed by the polls), in the PSOE, as this newspaper reported, the feeling did spread that it would take a “change of direction”, a revulsive. A government crisis, even. But in the hard core of the president, in Ferraz and in Moncloa, that possibility was vehemently denied. Not anymore. The blow of 19-J and the subsequent hard digestion have been settling in the game and in the Executive that Sánchez can move chips, because “so you can not continue“And it is that the fear that the wave favorable to the PP, which the polls reflect, will end up dragging the Socialists, has convinced the commanders that it is necessary to change dynamics, and perhaps also faces. In short, the leader’s praetorians they no longer rule out a renewal.
The management launched the campaign ‘Govern to transform: protect the middle and working class’, on social networks and in the territories
This Monday, of course, there were neither entries nor exits in the address. The general secretary and president gathered his executive and he did not say “not a single word” about hypothetical relays, as confirmed by different members to this newspaper. Nor were the ‘matins’ called, the Monday meeting at Moncloa in which Sánchez sits down with his hard core in Government, party and group to define the strategy and make the key decisions, so there are still no clues. The Chief Executive traveled to Ferraz after starring in a colloquium with the Nobel Prize winner for Economics, Abhijit Banerjee, and left as soon as it was over for an act of thanks to his team at Moncloa by the organization of the NATO summit last week.
Sánchez did not talk about changes to his executive, but he did ask them “focus on what’s important,” “not to be distracted by issues” that are not relevant, he insisted that it is key to mobilize the organization —the first analysis of 19-J is that progressive voters were not deluded— and demanded that they be convinced of the strength of the PSOE, “don’t lower your arms because the battles that are lost are surely the ones that do not take place”, as summed up by a person in charge of the leadership. In short, she urged them not to attend to “crap“, an expression that those present linked to the “speculations” of possible replacements. The meeting of the management served to launch the campaign ‘Governing to Transform: Protecting the Working and Middle Class‘, on social networks and in the territories, precisely to highlight the coalition’s response measures to the war in Ukraine, as Sicilia explained to journalists at the federal headquarters.
The bell #GovernToTransform_ wants to transfer the measures that are being implemented by the Government to deal with the consequences of the war in Ukraine.
? @felipe_sicilia pic.twitter.com/YFq0GHQAk1
— PSOE (@PSOE) July 4, 2022
“Nervousness”
The truth is that the PSOE is now a pressure cooker. The uncertainty, the time that Sánchez is taking to execute his movements, fuels the tensions, the “nervousness“of the leaders. The president, in the executive that followed the Andalusians, on 19-J, only gave a vague clue: that communication did not work, that the government’s measures do not take hold, that the media does not go “not to say anything“.
Some in the socialist leadership interpreted that it could refer to Héctor Gómez, the spokesman in Congress, with a great presence before journalists, but with a flat profile. But others looked at the spokesperson for the executive, Felipe Sicilia —a man trusted by Adriana Lastra, the deputy secretary general—, and others at the government spokesperson, Isabel Rodríguez, both with little punch and also very aligned with the argument.
“There is no possible interpretation. Whoever thinks they can interpret Pedro is wrong. He asked us to be at work,” says a high command
“We have to be able to explain what we do. The vast majority is in favor of our measures, so how is it possible that the sum of measures does not work? must do pedagogy“, pointed out to this newspaper a member of the Executive very close to the leader, who nevertheless assumes the “noise” constant that accompanies the action of the coalition, as it has been manifested again now with the discrepancies due to the increase in military spending. The vagueness of Sánchez’s instructions has triggered the crossfire between the Government, Ferraz and the group. For some, the problem is in the Executive, the main showcase of the PSOE, because they are missing a “squire” for the president, someone who defends him, a role previously performed by Carmen Calvo and José Luis Ábalos, who fell in the remodeling of the past 10 of July. For others, you have torevitalize“the party, prepare it and reinforce it in the face of the very tough competition of the regional and municipal elections in May and the general elections at the end of the year. And for others the parliamentary group fails.
Each one looks at the one in front looking for those responsible, but all recognize that it is difficult to anticipate what is going through the head of the president, very jealous of his movements and prone to surprise. “no possible interpretation. Whoever thinks they can play Pedro is wrong. He asked us to carry out the campaign that we presented this Monday and in that he asked us to be, to work, “said a high command of the management.
Today I wanted to recognize the excellent work of the public servants and all the personnel who have made it possible for the Summit #MadridOTAN22 It has been a great country success. With your dedication and experience you have turned Spain into an international example.
Thank you! pic.twitter.com/SqOojF0ldq– Pedro Sánchez (@sanchezcastejon) July 4, 2022
Soundings, “a still photo”
The calls and the exchange of impressions have taken place in the last few weeks, in the last few days, without any answers for now. What’s more, just like last year from Moncloa and from Ferraz it was recognized that the leader was doing “surveys“, probing leaders and positions for the changes that he ended up undertaking, now he has not entered that phase. Added to the uneasiness are the already existing tensions zigzagging between numbers two and three, Adriana Lastra and Santos Cerdán, who went through their worst moment a few months ago, between the end of 2021 and the start of 2022, and that now seemed more mitigated, according to government sources and the party leadership. The protagonists deny friction. In any case, Sánchez’s most trusted circle orbits in Moncloaand it is made up of his chief of staff, Óscar López, and his deputy, Antonio Hernando —all three friends from the time they worked at Ferraz under Pepe Blanco and both recovered last year—, and the Minister of the Presidency , Félix Bolaños, in addition to the Secretary of State for Communication, Francesc Vallès.
The most trusted circle is now made up of Óscar López, Antonio Hernando and Félix Bolaños. The eyes are directed both to the Executive and to the direction of the PSOE
“We’re not going to talk about speculations. The executive is a body that is not there to talk about speculation, but rather a body to talk about the problems that citizens have and provide solutions,” Sicilia said at a press conference in Ferraz on Monday. He himself stressed that this was the important thing, beyond that he occupied “one charge or another” in the PSOE. From the leadership they insisted that “the Government continues and the spokespersons today too”, although they recognized that there can always be changes because they all depend on the sole decision of the Secretary General and President of the Government. Sources close to Sicilia and Gomez confessed “tranquility“and with no indication from the leader that an impeachment was forthcoming.
The spokesman for the leadership downplayed the polls that already place Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s PP in votes and seats. The last, 40dB for ‘El País’ and SER: the polls are “a still photo at a specific time“, which Ferraz “respects” but with which he does not hyperventilate, because he is on the data: the good ones, such as unemployment, or the bad ones, such as inflation, Sicilia continued.
“We are not going to talk about speculation. The executive is a body that is not there to talk about speculation, but to talk about the problems of citizens,” replies Felipe Sicilia
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The “speculations” (expression of the deputy from Jaén) will not stop, probably, until Sánchez decides and communicates the replacements, if there are finally any, which is not certain either. The president, asked in an interview in ‘El País’ published this Sundaystated his “back to all the ministers of the Government of Spain and the federal leadership of the PSOE”. But it is already known that those words are endowed with the provisional nature of the moment: what is support today may cease to be tomorrow, as demonstrated with the profound remodeling of the Cabinet last July, and which continued with the 40th Federal Congress of the party, in October, in Valencia.
But those changes, judging by widespread opinion in the socialist ranks, have not curdled. Hence, the urgency of a “revulsive” is heard more, without being very clear if it is enough to launch new faces or the problem is more structural. The answer, however, has only one person: Sanchez.