A famine of unprecedented proportions is brewing in the Horn of Africa. This summer, in Somalia alone, 350 thousand children will die of hunger if we don’t increase food aid quickly. 5.7 million children in Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia are already acutely malnourished. Aid organizations and research institutes have been sounding the alarm for two years now. How can we sit and watch as this hell unfolds for millions of people? Are we really that taken aback by this disaster?
It is not a lack of knowledge or capacity, but a lack of political will. Money is only made available when it is too late. Only when the images on TV are terrible enough do political leaders take action. This way of reacting is not only inhumane, but also very expensive. Is our Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation prepared to pound the table and follow other countries by taking action now?
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Christel Bultman is program director of Save the Children Netherlands.
‘Never again’
After the famine of 2011, when more than 250,000 people died in Somalia, international governments said, “Never again.” It was agreed to invest heavily in two things. First, in sustainable solutions such as drought-resistant crops, better climate agreements and good and responsible governance. Second, in improving early warningsystems that sound the alarm in good time at signs of famine, such as grassland that is becoming too poor in nutrients. When such alarm signals from farmers reach the authorities in time, they can make aid policy accordingly. And, if desired, ask for international help.
Yet now, more than a decade later, hunger in the Horn of Africa is more serious than ever, with millions of children and adults once again dependent on emergency aid from foreign donors.
Anticipate
As long as we don’t invest enough in sustainable development prospects for the Horn of Africa, climate change and geopolitics will force us to see drought as a return. Something that is predictable should not have the chance to turn into a disaster because you can, with political will, implement policy on it.
Aid organizations have been pointing out for years the importance of anticipating predictable situations. In 2005 I was a member of a working group of UN organizations, NGOs, international donors and the national government of Ethiopia that designed an innovative model to prevent future famine. Based on long-term weather forecasts, economic and political trends, we predicted who would need help most when.
Rather than providing food aid afterwards, international aid organizations helped the government provide social safety nets and introduce improved agricultural practices to the most vulnerable groups in society. All things that pump money into the economy and help prevent famine. Bringing in money stimulates the market, while food aid does the opposite. The first is at least three times cheaper than responding too late to a famine.
escalate
For the current food crisis, politicians from donor countries now blame Russian President Putin and wash their hands in innocence. And let’s be honest, the war in Ukraine is further escalating the situation, because the blockade of grain transport leads to scarcity and price increases. However, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network predicted as early as 2020 that the rainy season would be bad for the next two years. Since then, there have been six warnings from local governments, the United Nations and aid agencies that the situation was escalating, including warnings of an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe by the summer of 2022.
All the collected data show that there is now widespread malnutrition. Not only in the Horn of Africa, but also in the western Sahel countries. And the rainy season from October to December will also be insufficient to make the areas food-secure again.
You cannot point to one culprit, Putin who is blocking the grain from Ukraine. The reason millions of people now suffer from malnutrition and hunger is political, as international donors have ignored the warnings of the United Nations and aid agencies and failed to provide funds in time for sustainable solutions to prevent famine.