Milan-Juve, what are they playing tonight. Luigi Garlando’s analysis

On 20 September 2014, at San Siro, Carlos Tevez scored the match goal against Milan, then pulled a pacifier out of his shorts to dedicate it to his son. Third day of the championship. Juve led by Massimiliano Allegri was also a newborn and would have won the first of his 5 Juventus championships. How much would Allegri pay to have Apache’s wickedness in attack tonight … Even Pioli’s Milan, after all, was born from an intersection with Juve: 7 July 2020. Under two goals, the Devil, who came out of the rocket from the lockdown, strafed with Ibra, Kessie, Leao and Rebic and began to get comfortable with his new strength, as a teenager does with his grown body. Also tonight something important can be born because this Milan-Juve is worth a lot. For both teams, but a little more for the Rossoneri. Because falling again, after the traumatic slip with Spezia, could cost Napoli overtaking and two weeks on the grid waiting for the derby on February 6 which, at that point, would have no alternative to victory. On the contrary, a victory would make it possible to rearrange feelings, keep the competition at a distance and prepare for the derby in the best possible way. A defeat by Juve, after 8 useful results, would be less ruinous. The Sacco di San Siro would allow the Lady to fall asleep in fourth place, over Atalanta, who have one game less. This would be the first direct match won. So far, of the top four in the class, Juventus have met Milan, Inter, Atalanta and Napoli twice, obtaining a total of 3 points and no victory. A famine crop. Milan, also considering Juve, gained 2 points more by playing one less direct match (Juve, Atalanta, Inter, Napoli). But the trend of the two teams has changed profoundly.

The Milan choir

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In the first 10 days, Milan beat Juve by 12 points (27-15) and 9 goals (23-14). An unexpected abyss. In the last 10 the world has turned upside down: Juve has collected 7 points more. But, note, Milan continued to score more: 21-18. It is an easily explained paradox. AC Milan, tortured by injuries, has lost the quality of interpreters, but has retained the quality of the game which is its true treasure. So if it was impossible to equalize the permeability of Kjaer and Tomori and, in the last 10 days, Juve have conceded 8 goals less than Milan, Pioli’s maneuver continued to find the door with the usual ease. The black and white squad is not inferior. Indeed, in terms of alternatives, it is superior to that of the Rossoneri. In fact, this summer Allegri did not say what he is saying now: “It will take 2-3 years to win again”. But (paper sings) provided: “In May we will be in the running for the Scudetto”. As we all thought, weighing the organic. If Milan have 7 points more today, it is precisely because in three years Pioli has educated a game that has increased the performance of individuals. Which in Allegri, better at managing than building, has not yet succeeded. Chiesa continued to run on his track, not always connected with the team. It is true that CR7 took away many goals, but it is also true that without the Portuguese tactical anarchy it would have been easier to organize an effective pressing that Juve never showed.

Juve to Cuadrado

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But, above all, it is in midfield that logic and organization have often been lacking, even with an extra Locatelli. In the end, the real point guard continues to be Cuadrado. Opta numbers say it. Balls played on average per game: Cuadrado 72, Locatelli 56.4, Bentancur 47.3, Rabiot 41.8, McKennie 40.8, Arthur 35.3. Everything passes from the Colombian who overcomes the midfielders mentioned also for shots on goal, crosses and created opportunities. He does everything. A full back. The modest production of the median explains the few goals scored. It’s not just Morata’s fault. There is also an imperfect finish. StatsBomb informs us that Napoli are the team that, on average, embroiders the most passes before reaching the shot. Juve is fourth. It seems like a virtuous position. In reality, Napoli, with a maneuver born of Sarrian education, reached the threshold of 40 goals, while Juve reached the minimum production of the millennium before changing pace in the last rounds, because possession was often transmission difficulties: effect funnel. At the tip he arrived little and the game depended too much on the individual plays of Chiesa or Dybala. In the latest releases, Juve has finally taken a more recognizable form, with McKennie attacking the depth, Dybala creating between the lines and Morata slipping away to assist the raiders. There is more logic, but even tonight the big bet will be on Joya’s genius and on a bunker defense: 6 goals conceded in the last 10. Chiellini will bite Ibra’s neck, Juve low in control, as in the Super Cup, waiting good restart. Instead, Pioli easily draws an aggressive game, with the turbo of anger due to the Serra effect. Pressing to keep Juve away and prevent them from spending running and physicality. Perhaps a more offensive Milan than usual, without the tactician Saelemaekers, with Messias, Diaz and Leao (the most fit) in support of Zlatan, keeping Rebic in the barrel, scoring in the last 3 crossings with the Lady. The return of Tonali and Romagnoli will cover the Devil’s back. It will be a game with a pacifier: however it goes, an important response will be born for the championship.