NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, predicts that the war in Ukraine will be long. In fact, seen from the Russian point of view – when Vladimir Putin calculated that in a matter of days he could topple Volodímir Zelensky and place a puppet to his liking in kyiv – he already is. In any case, four months after the start of the invasion, and although he holds Crimea and continues to advance (very slowly) in Donbas, Moscow is a long way from victory. So is kyiv.more limited in human and material resources to face an existential threat.
Today, neither of the two sides is in a position to reach a definitive result in the short term. In fact, Russia has been lowering its level of ambition to stay at a point where, without ever having achieved aerial control, it is limited to offensive actions that seek to control the entirety of the air. Luhansk oblast, with Severodonetsk and Lysychansk as main landmarks. Nor has it managed to cut off the supplies that Ukraine receives from abroad, mainly from Poland, and has had to move its ships away from the coast in the Azov and Black seas due to the increase in the anti-ship arsenal that kyiv currently has. And when they are confirmed Ukrainian attacks on Russian maritime platforms in Crimeathe possibility is opening up on the horizon that the vital bridge over the Kerch Strait, which links Russia with Crimea, may also very soon come under the range of Ukrainian missiles.
For its part, Ukraine is not only resisting, but, thanks to the increasing supplies received from abroad, it is in a position to further complicate Moscow’s plans with more or less resolute counterattacks in the Kherson and Kharkiv areas. Even without the planes and battle tanks that they have long demanded, the multiple launchers and the self-propelled guns and howitzers that are already operational are allowing it to attack not only Russian front-line units, but also their rearguards and reserves, frustrating a good part of their offensive operations. Add to that the announcement of a new round of US supplies and the offer made by the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnsonto train 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers every four months.
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The same Johnson who has synthesized Western sentiment regarding war in three steps: preserve its existence as a sovereign state, guarantee that it receives “weapons, equipment, ammunition and training more quickly than the invader and develop its capacity to use our help & rdquor; and secure sustained support to develop alternative land routes, preventing Russian dominance over its economy.
Under these conditions, while Russia, already looking to the fall, is willing to maintain the blockade of naval exports of Ukrainian grain Already restrict the supply of hydrocarbons to Western European countries, his interest in prolonging the war, seeking victory by exhaustion, seems evident. He believes that he has in his favor his superiority in human and material resources, with the growing income from the sale of hydrocarbons (China is already his first client), with the tiredness of the governments that have positioned themselves against him, with the pressure of Western societies against their own rulers for the damage caused by their opposition to Moscow and their own contempt for international law. We will see.