After that, major problems loom up, says energy analyst Jilles van den Beukel of the authoritative The Hague Center for Strategic Studies. Like the rest of Europe, the Netherlands is highly dependent on Russia, which supplies 40 percent of European natural gas.
Although Moscow has not openly threatened a gas boycott, it would not be the first time. In 2009, gas supplies to Europe stopped for weeks. Even then, this was the result of a dispute between Russia and Ukraine, which is considered an important transit country. Due to the gas strike in the middle of winter, Eastern European countries and the Balkans ran into serious problems at the time. In 2012, deliveries from Russia were also interrupted.
‘It is remarkable that if Moscow stops gas supplies, this always happens when it is cold,’ says Machiel Mulder, professor of energy economics at the University of Groningen, who has previously conducted research into Russian gas supplies. According to Mulder, it is not inconceivable that President Putin will now use the gas weapon again: ‘In fact, it is already underway and we are in the middle of it.’
Take the important Yamal connection via Belarus and Poland, which transports about 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe every year. Hardly anything has been flowing through this conduit for some time now. Less Russian gas is also coming through Ukraine. ‘The fact that prices are so high now is mainly due to Russian restrictions’, says Mulder. Natural gas still flows to Europe via the northern Nord Stream pipeline.
The Netherlands
If the situation around Ukraine escalates and Moscow decides to completely turn off the gas tap to Europe, the Netherlands will soon face social disruption as well. This is partly due to the fact that gas reserves in Europe, but especially in the Netherlands, are historically low.
The gas storage is never intended to provide the Netherlands with gas for a longer period of time; he especially has to absorb peaks, for example when it suddenly gets cold. If the supply of Russian natural gas stops, the storage will be emptied within a few weeks, says Van den Beukel.
Brussels has threatened heavy sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine. Europe can throw Russia out of the international banking system Swift. In the most extreme scenario, Moscow could then retaliate by cutting off the entire gas supply to Europe.
There is no question that the loss of a large part of the supply will have a major impact, according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs. According to a spokesperson, the magnitude of that impact depends on many factors, including how the remaining gas is distributed, and whether there are alternatives.
emergency plan
Two years ago, Economic Affairs drew up an emergency plan that outlines what should be done in the event of a serious disruption of the gas supply. According to this so-called Protect and Recovery Plan Gas in emergency situations, customers from the non-essential industry are first removed from the gas.
In the event of an abrupt end to Russian deliveries, a ministry spokesperson will almost certainly remove the “emergency” classification from the country Protect and Recovery Plan apply. In that case, non-essential customers will be quickly disconnected. The ministry cannot yet say which factories or sectors these are. ‘That depends on the specific situation: how big is the shortage, is it local or national, how long will the import shortage last.’
According to this emergency plan, hospitals, households and district heating systems are kept in the air for as long as possible. This also applies to gas-fired power stations. These are, among other things, essential for the transport of natural gas through the country. ‘If the situation lasts long enough, gas-fired power stations could also run into problems,’ says Van den Beukel.
Jan Vorrink, head of the control center of grid operator Tennet, expects that the Netherlands will not be the first country in the danger zone in the event of a Russian gas boycott. This is partly due to its own gas production, gas storage and gas connections with England and Scandinavia. The Netherlands can also relatively easily import electricity from neighboring countries. Vorrink says that even in the most extreme scenario, a large-scale power outage should not be expected.
‘Trustworthy partner’
If Russia turns off the gas tap, we will nevertheless have a major problem, says Gasunie. “But this has never happened, not even in the Cold War,” a spokesperson emphasized. ‘Russia has always been a reliable partner in business terms. We now assume that too.’ This may apply to the Dutch situation, but Europe has been hit by Russian gas sanctions in the past.
In 2009, the loss of Russian gas could partly be compensated for from other sources, including gas from Groningen. Now that is much less the case. The capacity of liquefied gas (LNG) supplied by ships is completely insufficient to make up for any shortages, say Van den Beukel and Mulder.
Other suppliers are also unable to supply gas quickly. Norway is already at its ceiling and the supply from Algeria will not be increased significantly, partly because of squabbles between Algeria and neighboring Morocco, through which one of the gas pipelines runs. In an absolute emergency, the gas tap in Groningen will be opened, says a person involved who speaks on an anonymous basis. ‘Even Groningen residents will understand that.’
Preconceived plan
“Looking back at the past year, you might wonder what Russia’s intention was. The supply was already relatively low and was getting lower and lower’, says Van den Beukel. In particular, the important stocks of high-calorific gas, of which the Russian state-owned company Gazprom has eight in Europe, were barely filled last year. Moscow may have chosen this strategy to pressure Europe into commissioning the new Nord Stream 2 gas connection. Whether there is a preconceived plan is speculation, says Mulder. “But you’re almost going to think so.”
Moscow is already profiting from its policy. ‘If the country supplies 10 percent less gas, this may lead to a doubling of the gas price in Europe,’ says Van den Beukel. Gazprom recently posted its largest quarterly profit ever. ‘Supplying less is therefore good financially.’
‘As far as natural gas is concerned, we are not in a good starting position at the moment’, Van den Beukel summarizes the situation. “And Russia does.”
It is understandable that Putin is now increasing the pressure. Its dominant position will diminish in the coming years, as Europe increasingly moves away from gas. And member states are likely to take measures in the coming months to avoid finding themselves in the same situation next winter.
Putin has until about April to use his power, then spring will come and the demand for gas will drop sharply. Van den Beukel: ‘Maybe it’s now or never.’