The rectification of Algeria gives a respite to the wear and tear of the Government

taketonews

Every week is a viacrucis for the Executive. A race of “obstacles” strenuous, as stated in the Socialist Group, which is in charge of obtaining support for each government project. Difficulties in carrying out the initiatives overlap —there are no defeats, but it is difficult to avoid them— with the noise constant in the coalition, plus the siege of the right and the distancing of the partners. And now the bad expectations of the PSOE in the Andalusian elections of June 19 are added. And now, too, the crisis with Algeria. But the clash was straightened out, to the relief of Moncloa, at the end of Friday, when the African country rectified after the threat of retaliation by the European Union, which closed ranks with Spain and whose pressure was definitive.

Statement from the European Commission after the commercial blockade from Algeria to Spain

“This is priceless. I am encouraged because I do things that I like in my ministry… but cloth,” a member of Pedro Sánchez’s Cabinet comments with resignation. a feeling of discouragement and frustration shared by PSOE and United We Can ministers, and which extends to their fellow deputies, who watch with concern how not “cove” the “transforming” management of the Executive, how it accumulates an enormous erosion day after day, how “they don’t shine” the measures that are being approved and that “impact” on the lives of citizens.

This last week provided more examples of that helplessness. On Tuesday, the division of socialists and purples in Congress on account of the prostitution and the tax on great fortunes. On Wednesday, Brussels’ definitive approval of the gas ceiling —several weeks after what was calculated by Moncloa— was overshadowed by Algeria’s double movement: the suspension of the Treaty of Friendship, Good Neighborhood and Cooperation (of 2002) and the announcement of freezing of commercial operations with Spain. Maneuver that came after a new appearance by the president for the turn in the Sahara that visualized him again with no more support than that of his group. On Thursday, with the crisis with Algiers still raw, the Government suffered to approve the opinion of the pension plan law.

Brussels warned that the commercial cut could “violate the EU-Algeria Association Agreement” of 2005 and would lead to “discriminatory treatment of an EU Member State”

The carousel of bad news, added to a endless list In a legislature marked by the pandemic, first, and the war in Ukraine, later, it stopped, however, on Friday. The Foreign Minister, José Manuel Albares, canceled his planned trip to Los Angeles, to the Summit of the Americas, to fly urgently to Brussels and get extra pressure on Algiers there.

The head of diplomacy achieved this support after meeting with the vice president of the Commission and head of Trade, Valdis Dombrovskis. The commissioner and the high representative of the EU, Josep Borrell, endorsed in a statement [aquí en PDF] the Government’s position: the step taken by Algiers causes the EU “maximum concern” and warned that the instructions to block the commercial relationship with Spain “at first sight seem to violate the EU-Algeria Association Agreement” of 2005 and would lead to a “discriminatory treatment of an EU Member State”. Brussels reminded the North African country that trade policy is “exclusive jurisdiction” of the Twenty-seven and that the Union was ready to “deal with any type of coercive measures applied against a Member State”.

Second supplier, after the USA

The threat of retaliation paid off. Shortly after, the Algerian mission in the community capital accused the EU to act with “precipitation” In his support for Spain, he denied that there had been a freeze on commercial ties and guaranteed gas supply Despite the suspension of the bilateral treaty (long-term contracts do not expire until 2032), although the statement left this coda: “It is up to the interested commercial companies to assume all their contractual commitments.”

In Moncloa they did not hide their indignation towards Feijóo for asking Sánchez to go to Congress: his attitude is, they say, “irresponsible and disloyal”

It was a warning to buyers of Algerian gas, mainly Naturgy: they will have to accept this foreseeable upward revision of prices who negotiate with Sonatrach, the country’s public company in the hydrocarbons sector. Algeria is the second gas supplier in Spain so far in 2022 (provides 25.3% of the total, according to Enagás data), behind the USA (35.4%) and ahead of Nigeria (14.6%) or Qatar (2.4%). Madrid tries to diversify the sources of hydrocarbon supply and is not very dependent on Russia (7.4%).

From Exteriors they expressed their “satisfaction” and highlighted the “important achievement of Albares“, the “example of the strength of Spain in the EU, which achieves powerful support from the Commission” and which provokes the “rectification of the Algerian Government”. “resounding successproduct of the discreet, noiseless and effective work” of the Executive, abounded in Sánchez’s team, where they transferred their support and confidence towards Minister Albares.

However, the crisis is not over. Far from it, because the ambassador in Madrid has not returned and Algiers keeps the letter from raise supply prices. Hence, there is the fear that a rise in prices will not make the purchase profitable. “The negotiation of prices has been open for months and is between companies. On this occasion, Algeria can play to raise prices in view of how crazy they are here by political groups and the media,” says a minister who saw the first response from Algiers as “disproportionate.”

In Moncloa they did not hide their indignation with the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, for requesting the appearance of the socialist leader in Congress to account for the crisis with Algeria and his “direforeign policy. For the Government, the Galician leader “has remained irresponsible and disloyal.” And they draw the following conclusion: “If the EU is aligned with Spain, the PP is equal to Russia and Algeria.”

“Fear of collapse at any moment”

Because, as a minister warns, the Algiers challenge must be read in the context of the new world order that has been opened with the invasion of Ukraine: Moscow wants to strengthen allies, expand its force throughout Africa. And that explains the meeting, last month, of the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrovwith the Algerian president, Abdelmadjid Tebbouneand his interview, this past Thursday, with the Venezuelan president, Nicholas Maduro. In short, that the “escalation” of the North African country was due to geopolitical interests, no matter how much he used Sánchez’s appearance on Wednesday morning as a “pretext”, in which he ratified his support for the Moroccan autonomy proposal on the Sahara and made a “positive balance” of the turn.

“There is an accumulation of good policies and an accumulation of many difficulties, and the latter generate a lot of noise,” observes a PSOE deputy; “We are transforming the country despite the noise”, they say in Moncloa

After the “reversal” of Algiers, the president saved the last ball this week, but that did not mean that the feeling of living on the edge of the abyss evaporated in the Executive. The “horror” of constant suffocation. That “fear of collapse at any time“, as defined by a purple minister. The Government, the two partners repeat, is not going to break, but the obstacles are superimposed. “There is an accumulation of good policies and accumulation of many difficulties, and the second ones generate a lot of noise”, sums up a socialist deputy. “We have been on the edge of the knife for some time – indicates another -. I don’t think we can talk about pessimism widespread. This week we have been able to get the Iberian exception. Another thing is the topics go very fast and every week we have a new one”.

In Moncloa and in the Socialist Group they underline the importance of the approved measures, and cite, as the latest examples, from this very week, the law on pension plans, the ratification of the ILO agreement that will benefit domestic workers, the elimination of the vote requested by the Congress by consensus of all the groups, the presentation of the aeronautical PERTE or the plan against childhood obesity. “We are transforming the country despite the noise“, stand out in Sánchez’s team.

“We are reassured that the measures look good to the people we are targeting them for, but obviously go legislature… No other scenario is possible with this opposition. There is no loyalty even in transcendental issues”, they add from the parliamentary leadership. A minister rebels against the “wave installed to discredit the executiveand it’s unfair, because it does a lot of things”. And each initiative, completes a high party command, “works intensely, although the negotiations are complex”, and will be more and more so, he warns, as the end of the legislature approaches, for which there is a year and a half. Regarding the behavior of United We Can, in the PSOE they emphasize the serious warning that Sánchez made them on Wednesday: “What demobilizes the left is that we strive on some occasions, more than is due, to underline the differences and not the alliances in favor of these social conquests.”

98% more requests to vote by mail on 19-J

The gloomy look is justified by the predictable poor left performance in the elections of 19-J. Although in the Andalusian PSOE and in Ferraz a greater mobilization of the bases and a better climate is detected, the difficulty of freeing a tough battle, “with everything against”, in the midst of a dim campaign in which there have been no surprises and in which the president of the Board and candidate for re-election, Juanma Moreno, intends to reach the polls in flight. In the game they admit that his headliner, Juan Espadas, is missing “bite” to attack the regional leader of the PP, but they add that it is part of their style. The socialists aspire to at least resist, to have a result similar to that obtained by Susana Díaz in 2018 (33 seats) or slightly improve it, and they admit hope seeing be increased by 98% mail-in ballot requestsup to 176,598). Falling below the psychological barrier of the 30 deputies would sink Swords and the spirit of the formation.

The Socialists aspire to at least resist, to have a result similar to that of 2018 (33 seats) or slightly improve it

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The question that persists is what will happen after 19-J if the fiasco is confirmed. As this newspaper advanced, the feeling that “a revulsive” will be needed, a “change in the rudder”, perhaps a change in government, persists and is very installed. But in the hard core of Sánchez, in Moncloa and in Ferraz, they insist that renovations are not prepared in the Executive, in which there is not even a hint of the slightest buzz.

The answer will only be known once the votes are counted. Perhaps there is room for a blow of effect that Sánchez prides himself on giving. Or there is nothing. But if the results are bad, the pot of the PSOE will boil again as an attempt, at least, to escape from a dangerous spiral that can take him out of Moncloa, as some polls already anticipate. In the game there is still no alarm, it is believed that the regional and municipal elections of 2023 and perhaps the general ones will be won, although those forecasts may change in just a week.

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