Not a day goes by that people on the street or on a terrace ask me if I expect that we will be stuck again in the autumn in a world of lockdowns and closed cafes and restaurants. I have no idea whether a sub-variant of omikron will strike again after the summer and how full the ICs will be with corona patients. I do know one thing: if there is not a plan on the table before the summer holidays to prepare for the worst, then we can only pray that the virus takes pity on us.
What we have learned from the three years that the pandemic has now ravaged the world is that the danger is just around the corner and that we, amateur virologist or virologist by profession, have been surprised again and again by the virus. The first wave of the Wuhan virus came from China, then the alpha variant from England, the beta variant from South Africa, the delta variant from India and the current omikron variant again from South Africa. Who says where the next variant or sub-variant comes from?
About this author
Jaap Goudsmit is a medical microbiologist, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health.
2021 was the year of the major vaccination campaigns and 2021 and the spring of 2022 of the booster vaccinations. We now know quite a bit about what the current generation of vaccines do for us. It seems that we can go on holiday this summer unhindered by corona passes and test certificates. Current vaccines prevent most hospital admissions when infected with the current corona variants, even among the people most at risk of ending up in intensive care or dying. These are generally the elderly, but especially those who have a bad immune system, damaged lungs or other suffering that affects someone’s health.
Chance of infection
What current vaccines don’t do is reduce your chances of getting infected. The risk of contamination is especially present if your last booster was longer ago. The chance that a new epidemic will be prevented thanks to herd immunity is small and probably zero. Reinfections within a few months of a previous infection or vaccination are common. That’s not a bad thing, after all, that’s also the case with the flu and we don’t make a fuss about that either.
The big difference with the flu is that flu vaccination for the elderly is routine and corona vaccination is not yet. The coronavirus spreads many times faster than the flu, so more people get corona. As a result, even though corona is not very sickening on average, more people with corona will end up in IC than with the flu.
From now on, we must prepare for both: one year there will be more flu, the next more corona. No one can predict that. But we can do something, and we should, but the government has not made it easy for us. And only the government can prevent the next corona wave, we as citizens are pretty powerless. And that’s not a nice feeling.
Many vaccines
The first problem is that we live in a world where there is an unavoidable need to know as much detail about vaccines as possible. Every year, people over 60 and people who are extra vulnerable can get a flu shot from their GP. These are purchased this month and the numbers are reported to the government by the general practitioners. It’s just called ‘the flu shot’ and nobody knows or cares who produces it. One year the vaccine comes from company A, the next from company B. That makes it simple: the vaccines are used interchangeably and nobody makes an issue of it. There is also no scientific argument to do it differently.
But with corona it went differently: you had the Pfizer vaccine, the Moderna vaccine, the Astra vaccine and the Janssen vaccine. Soon there will also be the Novavax and the GSK/Sanofi vaccine.
All vaccines had few side effects compared to vaccines against other viruses, but some differences were seen. Overall, these vaccines were extremely safe. Some vaccines faced logistical problems, others less so because a freezer or a regular refrigerator was already sufficient to properly store the vaccine.
After boosters, all vaccines were about equally effective and had the same beneficial effect on someone who was struggling with a corona infection. The vaccines could also simply be used interchangeably, so there is no reason to talk about the corona vaccine of this or that company any longer: from now on I recommend talking about ‘the corona vaccine’ just like with the flu.
Two vaccinations in one day
Government, do not make scenarios and do not polder what to do. Do what burdens people the least and has the best chance of protecting as many elderly people as possible from the consequences of corona infection. Offer everyone who qualifies for a free flu shot to also receive your corona shot on the day of that vaccination. Just go to the doctor.
Make it easy for GPs and buy the vaccines that cause the least pressure for GPs: a vaccine that only requires a refrigerator and not a freezer.
Do not set up vaccination streets where people have to go specially. And finally release the GGDs, so that they can resume their regular tasks.
But the government: tell the GPs now that you are going to do it this way and don’t wait a minute longer. The GPs are already preparing to call on people in October. Don’t make it more difficult than necessary. I also recommend calling up the same group for a second shot after six months: the vaccines are simply no better, no longer work and require a second shot. Everything points to that. Also tell us as citizens what you as a government are going to do in the autumn and don’t leave us in the dark before the holidays.
Only by acting now can we increase the chance that if the coronavirus strikes again, we will protect everyone at risk from the virus. Government: protect us and prevent another lockdown.