Can your child still go to daycare? How long should you wait for surgery? Is that festival still going on this summer? We are all noticing the consequences of the tight labor market. And that will remain the case for some time to come, warns labor market professor Ton Wilthagen of Tilburg University: “There are no simple solutions.”
The situation on the labor market is exceptional, according to Wilthagen. There are now 133 vacancies for every 100 job seekers. And there are as many as 450,000 vacancies nationwide.
“We have never experienced anything like this, not even after WWII.”
According to Wilthagen, what is happening now is unique: “There is no longer a sector that does not have any vacancies. So the tightness is very wide. Not only care, education and ICT, but also construction, installation technology, you name it. We have never experienced anything like this, not even during the reconstruction after the Second World War.”
The problem that especially Brabant is struggling with is the shortage of technical people: “Never before have so many people worked in technology and there have never been so many vacancies. There is also a lot of logistics in Brabant and there are also major labor shortages there.”
According to Wilthagen, this is not due to corona: “The main cause is the population structure that is changing. There are fewer young people and there are also more and more elderly people who live longer and who you have to take care of.”
“The labor shortage will only diminish in thirty years.”
What frustrates Wilthagen is that you could have seen this coming: “This has been going on for a while. Since 2019 I have been calling for something to be done about this. But nothing happened, because corona came. Because of the lockdowns, we thought there were too many workers. But this is a structural problem.” And Wilthagen has bad news: “It will only decrease in thirty years’ time.”
How do you solve this now? “There is not one solution. There are ten buttons that you can turn. All with negative and less pleasant sides. But you have to turn all those knobs. Labor migration is one of those buttons that many people say: don’t do it. Because they also have to live somewhere and we don’t have construction workers to build those houses.”
Nevertheless, Brabant already relies heavily on labor migrants: “A lot of people work at ASML, the knowledge workers, of whom we say: do them. But also in agriculture. You can say: we don’t want any more. But if they leave tomorrow, you’ll have a big problem.”
“We are world champions of part-time work.”
Wilthagen points to yet another button: “What sets us apart from other countries is that we work much less. We are world champions of part-time work. We want hobbies, informal care, taking care of the children ourselves and travelling. Especially for care and education, professions in which many women work, the solution is simple: start working more hours.”
Also, according to Wilthagen, you should think of ‘unknown talent’: “People on welfare or young disabled people who are able and willing to work with adaptation and training. That is a large group: 1.3 million people.”
We can also save labor with smart technology: “Recently I was in a restaurant where I ordered my food via a QR code.” And we need to make smarter study choices: “Entice more students to opt for technology instead of communication, sports and exercise.”
The ball is also largely in the region, says Wilthagen: “I think you will see many good plans in the coalition agreements. It is also an opportunity, isn’t it. For people who have been on welfare for a long time, it is now or never. If it doesn’t work now, it never will.”
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