It is such a familiar sight for those who look out over the North Sea from the dunes at Katwijk or Egmond. First the surfers and some sailing yachts and then, further on, ships en route to IJmuiden, Rotterdam or other ports. When the weather is clear, the windmills can also be seen, the blades lazily grinding in the wind. But that is only the visible part of the North Sea, from the Dutch beaches. A peaceful still life compared to the maritime bustle beyond the horizon.
Every year there are more wind turbines. And they get bigger. With a view to the ‘green transition’ as the last lifeline for the warming earth, it therefore seems extremely good news that the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and Germany during a wind energy summit in Esbjerg plans unfolded for thousands of new turbines in the North Sea – where the wind has free rein and is free.
But on the open seas, where everyone flies under their own flag and responsibilities become cloudy between the waves, colossal risks have arisen; not only for the direct users – fishermen, tankers, freighters, windmills, oil rigs, cable and pipeline operators, navies and air forces, pleasure craft and ferries – but also for the environment and millions of residents living in the coastal areas of the world’s busiest navigable waters. Who controls shipping traffic on a site like naval traffic view sees at a glance that the North Sea has developed into a complete industrial area, where large shipping has been transformed into inland shipping. Thousands of ships navigate between the expanding energy parks in increasingly narrow channels. Evacuation options in the event of storms or calamities have reached a minimum. And traffic control as in the air does not exist at sea.
To say that there are conflicting interests between the users of the North Sea is an understatement. In other words: it seems to be waiting for the blow. There is deep concern in maritime circles, especially after the drunken journey of the cargo ship Julietta D that drifted adrift near IJmuiden at the end of January. That it did not become a catastrophe was simply because everything went well. The disaster would have been incalculable if the chemical tanker the ship collided with had been full, not empty. Or if the rudderless Julietta D had hit the temporarily disconnected gas platform that it now missed by a hair.
With this busy North Sea, we can expect an average of 2.5 collisions per year, calculated the Dutch research institute MARIN for NRC† Coastguard director Nicole Kuipers explained this week in the Noordhollands Dagblad put the finger on the sore spot by stating that when new wind farms are being built, attention to safety ‘sometimes fades into the background’. With thousands of new turbines on the way, the perceived “let’s put it down” mentality seems like a recipe for disaster.
While the North Sea has gradually become a problem area, no one bears or feels full responsibility. Commercial parties and governments want to continue. The North Sea is the motor of the green transition, but it twists, clashes and cracks. Making choices becomes inevitable; world trade, 90 percent via seaways, is chafing a future full of wind turbines. Container ships of 400 meters, tankers full of gas or chemicals – everything squeezes through the North Sea; along the shortest possible routes, with the smallest possible crew and the fastest possible throughput, because competition is fierce and supervision is limited and fragmented. Moreover, to reduce dependence on Russian fuels, precisely this part of Europe can count on the arrival of a huge fleet of LNG tankers.
It is alarming that this maritime industrial area in particular lacks the security measures that are standard in a place like Pernis. The Dutch answer is also not convincing; better vessel monitoring is a stopgap measure, as are a few extra auxiliary tugs to intercept the next Julietta D more quickly. Here too, the government mainly thinks in terms of expanding wind energy, while the sea is crying out for choices and regulation.
Internationally it is even more difficult. An eerie image emerges of onlookers who know the risks but are too fragmented to manage the North Sea responsibly. These risks are so serious that the countries involved need to consider a North Sea authority with international powers. The only ones that can change this are the countries themselves; it is their task to find a solution for the safe management of the North Sea. The fact that dangerous situations mainly take place behind the horizon should never lead to recklessness or underestimation. Everyone had been warned.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of 21 May 2022